After Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high this week, a trading expert believes the asset is on track for even greater gains, possibly reaching $200,000 in 2025.
According to an analysis by TradingShot, historical trends and technical setups suggest that Bitcoin might reach the $200,000 mark toward the end of this year, as per a May 23 TradingView post.
In the outlook, TradingShot emphasized that Bitcoin is currently experiencing its weakest bull cycle to date, a natural consequence of the Theory of Diminishing Returns (TDM).
This theory posits that as markets mature, the magnitude of returns tends to slow. While Bitcoin’s earlier cycles witnessed explosive growth, more recent ones have been comparatively moderate yet notable.
To illustrate this, TradingShot overlaid Bitcoin’s previous bull cycles (2009–2011, 2012–2013, 2015–2017, 2019–2021).
The comparison revealed a transition from aggressive early growth to a more consistent pattern, resembling movements in traditional financial markets. Interestingly, the 2015 to 2017 and 2019 to 2021 cycles showed similar upward paths, with temporary divergences eventually returning to the broader trend.
Bitcoin tracking past cycles
Looking ahead, the ongoing cycle appears to be tracking within an upward channel. After a projected divergence in February 2025, Bitcoin is expected to realign with its historical trend. The recent six-week rebound further supports this outlook.
Based on these patterns, TradingShot forecasts that Bitcoin’s cycle peak will likely occur between October and December 2025, with a potential price range of $150,000 to $200,000.
“Based on past cycles, it should be within October – December 2025. Timing your exit strategy can perhaps be more effective than assigning a certain Target, even though the peak is expected to be anywhere within the $150k – $200k range,” the expert said.
It’s worth noting that, after surpassing a new record high above $111,000, analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin could maintain this momentum in the coming weeks.
For instance, as reported by Finbold, veteran trader Peter Brandt stated that following this breakout, Bitcoin’s technical formation indicates the possibility of reaching $150,000 by August 2025.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency trading expert Gert van Lagen made another bullish projection. In a May 24 post on X, he explained that Bitcoin has historically followed a clear exponential path, rising from $1 to over $100,000 through recurring bullish patterns such as cup-and-handle formations.
He emphasized that if history repeats itself, the real peak could be three to six times higher than current levels, noting that Bitcoin’s rise isn’t just linear; it’s compounding.
Bitcoin price analysis
As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $108,811, down over 2% in the last 24 hours. However, on a weekly basis, the asset has climbed more than 5%.
Notably, the broader sentiment around Bitcoin remains bullish. The current price stands well above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), reaffirming a strong upward trend.
Featured image via Shutterstock
