ETH’s options-based probability density function shows just a 10% chance of prices testing the year-to-date high of $4,000 by the end of December.
ETH faces headwinds from weak fundamentals.
Ethereum’s ether (ETH), once viewed as the shiny silver to bitcoin’s (BTC) gold, has only risen 36% this year, significantly trailing behind BTC’s impressive 109% surge.
Such is the investor aversion toward ETH that, at the going market rate of $3,100, the cryptocurrency is still well below the record price of $4,832 in 2021, while BTC trades at lifetime highs above $90,000.
The underperformance, which makes ETH feel more like palladium struggling to keep pace with gold, is expected to continue well into the year’s end, as new research by Amberdata shows only a 10% chance of ether topping the first quarter high of around $4,000 while traders bet on BTC setting new highs above $100,000.
The chart shows the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF), highlighting the probability of ether trading at various price levels over several time frames. The graphic is derived from ether options trading on the dominant crypto options exchange Deribit.
A taller peak at a certain price indicates a greater probability of prices reaching that level and vice versa.
At press time, traders assigned just a 10% probability of ether topping the $4,000 mark by the Dec. 27 expiry. It’s a sign that the expected regulatory shift away from enforcement actions against decentralized finance and other crypto sectors under Trump’s presidency is yet to galvanize investor interest in ETH, even though it has done so for the so-called DeFi coins.
Amberdata attributes ETH’s dour outlook to weak fundamentals.
“ETH faces serious headwinds as the value proposition of “sound money” (aka deflationary supply due to transaction fee burn) has flipped to inflation supply as nearly all DeFi transactions are being executed on L2s as opposed to ETH L1 itself. I believe that’s drastically dragging prices down,” Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives Greg Magadini said in a newsletter to clients.
Note, however, that a potential acceleration in bitcoin’s ongoing uptrend could eventually drag ETH above the $4,000 level, irrespective of Ethereum’s fundamentals, while maintaining its underperformance relative to BTC.
