However, there are indications that the quarterly returns may be less impressive in Q4 for Ethereum. The median return for the fourth quarter has decreased to 0.36% compared to the historic average return of 16.97%.
Therefore, sustaining the recovery will depend on whether strong Q3 momentum can carry into the new quarter.
Whales increase $ETH exposure
Ethereum’s strong Q3 performance has attracted the attention of whales. Large holders appear to be adjusting their positioning ahead of further price increases for Ethereum.
As a result of this, a wallet associated with Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin transferred 133,298 $ETH, valued at $356.2 million, into a new wallet.
Although this transaction has not moved directly from the wallet to an exchange and thus does not show direct selling pressure. Instead, it shows significant capital moving into $ETH after its 70.8% quarterly increase.
Meanwhile, another whale created a $40.6 million $ETH long and also a $33.62 million Bitcoin short. These trades seem to target an outperforming $ETH versus a weakly performing crypto market.
Therefore, they are based upon the strong performance of $ETH over Bitcoin [$BTC], which closed at 42.71% in Q3.
Together, transactions indicate that large holders are beginning to realign themselves as they consider their next move. However, these trades will ultimately depend on whether additional transfers occur and if they make any changes to their positions.
Can $ETH extend its lead over $BTC?
Ethereum’s recent outperformance in Q3 is now being tested against Bitcoin. The $ETH to $BTC ratio has moved upward from 0.0316 to a high of 0.0325 before retreating. Buyers supported 0.0319 and were able to bring the ratio back up towards 0.0323.
This matters because if the ratio continues its move upwards, it will indicate that investors are still favoring $ETH instead of $BTC after the quarterly rally. Derivatives positioning adds leverage to that preference, with Hyperliquid holding more than $3.1 billion in $ETH Open Interest.
Funding remains mildly positive near 0.00125% hourly, suggesting longs dominate without clear signs of extreme crowding. Thus, continuing to buy $ETH may allow the current increase of the $ETH to $BTC ratio to continue.
Conversely, less activity on the Spot market could lead to reversing the trend and potentially decrease $ETH’s relative performance.
Final Summary
- Ethereum enters Q4 with strong momentum after a record 70.8% Q3 gain, but sustaining demand remains crucial.
- $ETH whale positioning and a rising $ETH/$BTC ratio support continued relative strength, while weaker demand could pressure the recovery.
