It has been suggested that the long-awaited new altcoin season in the cryptocurrency market, unlike past cycles, may only benefit a limited number of projects.
Wintermute, one of the world’s leading crypto market makers, stated in its latest assessment that institutional investor behavior is beginning to shift and capital is increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of tokens.
Wintermute announced that in the first half of 2026, institutional clients accounted for 72% of the company’s over-the-counter (OTC) spot trading volume. This is the highest level recorded in the company’s history.
According to the data, institutional investors’ trading activity decreased significantly on average within a day following sharp price increases, while individual investors’ interest continued for approximately three days. This indicates that institutional capital is acting more selectively and concentrating on specific tokens.
According to Wintermute, this trend suggests that the classic “altcoin season,” where hundreds of altcoins experienced simultaneous price increases in the past, may be changing. The company believes that in the new cycle, only projects with strong use cases, high liquidity, and institutional interest will stand out.
Other data supporting the overall market outlook presents a similar picture. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that trading volume for altcoin pairs traded on Bitcoin is approaching its lowest levels since 2021. According to the same data, the top 10 altcoins by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins, account for approximately 80.5% of the total altcoin market capitalization when Bitcoin and stablecoins are excluded.
Similarly, market data company Kaiko noted that trading volumes are increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of projects. According to Kaiko data, the top 10 altcoins account for 63% of total altcoin trading volume, compared to approximately 50% just a few months ago. This shift indicates that investor capital is increasingly being directed towards a narrower group of projects.
Analysts note that in the current environment where institutional investors are acting more cautiously, projects with strong technology, high liquidity, and a sustainable ecosystem may attract more attention compared to other altcoins. Therefore, it is assessed that a potential new altcoin season may not be as broad-based as past bull markets, and gains may be concentrated in a limited number of strong projects.
*This is not investment advice.
