Forecasts from major banks range from 0.16% to 0.24%, with a median estimate of around 0.21%. Monthly core CPI rose 0.29% in August.
If core CPI comes in below expectations, investors may expect less pressure on interest rates. This could support stock prices, particularly if bond yields fall. Financial, industrial and consumer stocks could also benefit if investors move money into sectors beyond major technology companies.
However, a higher-than-expected reading could increase concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer, putting pressure on stocks.
2. ASML Earnings Could Move Semiconductor and AI Stocks
ASML’s earnings report is the second major event that could influence the stock market today. The Dutch company supplies advanced equipment used to manufacture semiconductors, making its results important for the wider chip industry.
Analysts expect quarterly revenue of around €13.2 billion, compared with €7.5 billion in the same quarter last year. Earnings per share estimates range from €10.50 to $10.58, according to the figures cited in the market analysis.
In its previous guidance, ASML forecast revenue of €11 billion to €12 billion and a gross margin of 55% to 57%. The company reported €9.3 billion in revenue and a 54% gross margin in the second quarter, exceeding its revenue and margin guidance.
Investors will look beyond the latest earnings to ASML’s outlook for 2027 and 2028. They will assess whether the company can expand production to meet demand for chipmaking equipment as semiconductor manufacturers invest in new facilities.
Strong results and an improved outlook could support semiconductor and AI-related stocks. However, weaker guidance or concerns about production capacity could weigh on the sector.
How Could These Events Affect the Nasdaq and S&P 500?
The CPI report could influence the broader stock market through its impact on interest rate expectations. ASML’s results could have a more direct effect on semiconductor shares and technology stocks, including the Nasdaq.
Investors will also watch upcoming results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for further signs of chip demand and AI investment.
The market reaction will depend on how the results compare with expectations. Even strong ASML earnings may fail to lift its share price if investors were already expecting strong growth.
