There seems to be some division amongst crypto gamblers about the prospective timeline and odds that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will give its nod to spot Ethereum ETFs like it did with Bitcoin ETFs in January.
Polymarket Insight on Spot ETH ETF
There are speculations that the agency may approve the spot Ethereum ETF applications that have been filed to its office by May 31. However, a chart from Polymarket, a renowned prediction market, shows that the odds of having a positive decision from the SEC by the proposed time is not even up to 50%.
Spot ETH ETF Approval Odds. Source: Polymarket
Precisely, the odds of receiving approval by the next two months are now at 45% per the crypto gambling marketplace.
This percentage and the chart trend confirm that crypto enthusiasts are double-minded, indicating that they are not positive that the SEC will grant the requests of the filers. As of January 10, one day before spot Bitcoin ETFs went live, the enthusiasm and optimism for spot Ethereum ETF approval were heightened. At the time, there was more than an 80% odds of receiving the approval.
Since that time, there has been some fluctuation concerning the odds and it has gradually dropped to the present point. Some experts have shared their thoughts on the possibility of having the approval within the next few months. Some of these experts were somewhat certain about the spot Ethereum ETF approval.
Swindling Optimism Regarding Spot Ethereum ETF Approval
Unlike the pessimism showcased on Polymarket, Senior Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart estimated a 60% odd of spot Ethereum ETFs receiving approval in May. As the SEC started postponing its decision on the individual requests of the filers, including that of Grayscale Investments and BlackRock, analysts began to reconsider their prediction.
By February, Bernstein analysts, Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, were already talking about a 50% likelihood of an Ethereum investment vehicle entering the market as early as May.
This clearly shows how the optimism toward spot Ethereum ETF approval has declined with time and market realities. Individuals like CNBC’s Mad Money host Jim Cramer still believe that there is a high probability that the approval will come very soon.
Cramer’s speculation was, however, based on the huge success recorded by spot Bitcoin ETFs.
