Bitcoin ($BTC) mining profitability has come under significant pressure due to rising costs and geopolitical tensions. According to data from the on-chain analytics platform Checkonchain, as of mid-March, the average cost of producing one Bitcoin has risen to approximately $88,000.
In contrast, the Bitcoin price is trading around $69,000. This reveals that miners are losing an average of $19,000 per $BTC they produce, operating with a negative margin of approximately 21%.
The cost pressure stems not only from falling prices but also from rising energy costs. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly developments centered around Iran, have pushed oil prices above $100, driving up electricity costs. Given that approximately 8-10% of global hashrate is sensitive to energy markets in this region, rising energy prices directly impact mining operations. The significant closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and US President Donald Trump’s harsh statements against Iran have further increased market uncertainty.
Network data also confirms this pressure. Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped by 7.76% in the latest adjustment, falling to 133.79 trillion, marking the second largest drop of 2026. Compared to the beginning of the year, the difficulty is approximately 10% lower, remaining well below the peak of 155 trillion reached in November 2025. During the same period, the hashrate dropped to approximately 920 EH/s, while the average block production time increased to 12 minutes and 36 seconds, indicating a slowdown in the network.
The “hashprice” metric, which measures miners’ income, is also hovering near critical levels. According to Luxor data, hashprice is around $33.30, a figure quite close to the break-even point for many miners. The proximity to the lows seen in February, around $28, reveals the depth of the profitability crisis in the sector.
In this environment, miners are forced to sell their Bitcoins to continue their operations. This selling pressure creates additional downward pressure in a market where 43% of the supply is already at a loss and large investors are selling off during rallies. Therefore, the disruption in the mining economy is not only a sectoral problem but also a factor that directly affects the market structure.
On the other hand, publicly traded mining companies are undergoing a strategic transformation in response to these challenging conditions. Companies like Marathon Digital and Cipher Mining are increasing their data center investments by focusing on artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) to diversify their revenue streams. These areas offer a more predictable income stream compared to Bitcoin mining.
The next difficulty adjustment, expected to take place in early April, is also anticipated to be downward. As long as the Bitcoin price remains below the cost of production, miners may continue to leave the network, and the difficulty level may continue to be adjusted downwards. Although the Bitcoin network is a self-balancing structure in the long term, this transition period, where costs exceed revenues, is expected to put continued pressure on both miners and the market.
*This is not investment advice.
