A Bitcoin analyst on X has highlighted a scenario that could trigger a BTC price rally. In a recent post, the analyst noted a potential shortage in Bitcoin supply looming. He forecasted the possibility of the cryptocurrency reaching $150,000 soon, depending on investors’ behavior.
There’s ONLY 140,000 BTC left on OTC markets. If microstrategy makes three more purchases, ALL OTC BTC is depleted. If the ETFs accumulate as much as they did in January, OTC BTC is depleted. If the U.S. and 15 states begin to buy bitcoin… you get the idea. There’s almost no… pic.twitter.com/t3XQkyOSmW
— The Modern Investor (@ModernInvest) February 9, 2025
The analyst argued that the reason Bitcoin price has remained relatively stagnant since January despite massive BTC purchases by whales and institutional investors is because those investors choose to buy Bitcoins over the counter (OTC).
Related: BlackRock CEO “Surprised” by Bitcoin ETF’s Record-Breaking Demand
According to the analyst, they do so to avoid purchasing via crypto exchanges and therefore pushing the price high, making it more expensive for them to buy later on.
OTC Bitcoin Supply Dwindling?
Importantly, from the analyst’s review of OTC supply, the total balance available on the Bitcoin OTC desk is 140,000 BTC. That amount can diminish quickly or even run out if notable investors like the ETF providers and Michael Saylor’s Strategy embark on their usual purchasing spree. The analyst believes it would take Strategy about three purchases to deplete the supply, leaving other buyers with no option but patronizing crypto exchanges.
The analyst laid out the possibilities that could follow a depletion of the OTC supply, including creating FUD that would trigger a market crash and shaking big hands to enable them to buy BTC cheaply. The second possibility involves triggering a FOMO rally and buying Bitcoins directly from exchanges, resulting in a surge in price.
Retail Investors: Stay Alert for BTC Moves
According to the analyst, the current Bitcoin price situation signals the cryptocurrency is on a knife-edge and is ready to swing up or down, depending on institutional investors’ actions.
The situation provides an ideal opportunity for retail investors to be alert and observe the market closely to enable them to differentiate between price fake-outs and substantive crypto rallies.
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