Bitcoin has touched its 50-month moving average for only the fourth time in its history. Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello says this level has marked major market bottoms in previous cycles.
Gambardello said Bitcoin’s interactions with the 50-month moving average in 2015, 2018, and 2022 all coincided with bear-market lows. Now, with Bitcoin revisiting the same indicator in 2026, he believes the market is nearing another turning point.
“2015 bottom zone. 2018 the bottom. 2022 the bottom. 2026 right now,” Gambardello wrote on X.
$71K Emerges as the Key Resistance Level
Gambardello identified the 20-week moving average, currently near $71,000, as the most important level to watch.
He noted that previous bear market recoveries followed a similar pattern. Bitcoin first reclaimed the 20-week moving average, then moved toward the 50-week moving average. That sequence helped confirm that the market bottom was in place.
The analyst believes a quick recovery above $71,000 would strengthen the bullish case. It would also weaken the argument that Bitcoin must wait until the fourth quarter to establish a final cycle bottom.
“If Bitcoin makes that move sooner rather than later, the ‘Q4 bottom’ thesis doesn’t have months left to be proven right. It has weeks,”he said.
Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle vs. Business Cycle
Gambardello said the market is currently caught between two competing theories. The first is Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle model. Under that view, the market could still face additional downside before reaching its ultimate bottom later this year.
The second is the business cycle theory, which considers macroeconomic trends. These include manufacturing activity, liquidity conditions, and performance of the commodity.
According to the analyst, several macro indicators are beginning to support a bullish outlook. He pointed to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which has returned to expansion territory. He also highlighted a breakout in the copper-to-gold ratio.
Historically, these signals have appeared near the start of crypto bull markets.
“Every prior time that combination showed up, a crypto bull market followed,” he said.
Gambardello believes the coming weeks could determine which framework better explains Bitcoin’s current cycle. A move above the 20-week moving average near $71,000 would support the view that a major bottom is already forming, while continued weakness could keep the four-year cycle thesis intact.
Related: Bitcoin Climbs Above $63K While Analysts Debate Next Move Toward $68K
