The intraday retreat followed another failed attempt to remain above $80,000. Sellers entered as the price approached $80,500, keeping $BTC inside the $77,200–$82,100 range identified by Bitfinex.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, expects even tighter trading before the Fed announces its next interest-rate decision.
“I expect compression into a tight range, capped around $82,000 with support at $78,000–$79,000, and a directional resolution once the Fed is out of the way,” Ko told the publication.
A move below the lower end of Ko’s range would bring the $77,200 level identified by Bitfinex into focus. On the upside, Bitcoin would need to clear $80,500 before testing the stronger supply area around $82,000.
Earlier technical conditions also showed why that upper zone could remain difficult to cross. On Aug. 27, Bitcoin traded near $79,500 after climbing about 25% from its mid-August range, but daily relative strength index readings had reached overbought territory at 81.14. The 200-day SMA breakout kept the recovery structure intact, while fading short-term momentum and liquidity near $81,000 raised the risk of another pullback.
ETF inflows support Bitcoin price near $79,000
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $986.9 million in net inflows during the week ending Sep. 4, taking the three-week total to approximately $3.8 billion, according to Ko.
Institutional demand has helped Bitcoin remain near $80,000 even as markets have raised their expectations for another Fed rate increase. Ko, however, said three weeks of positive flows were not enough to confirm a sustained accumulation period.
“The $986.9 million of inflows brought the three-week total to roughly $3.8 billion, which is clearly constructive. But I would still like to see another few weeks of sustained net inflows, particularly if Bitcoin turns boring and trades sideways, before calling this a genuine accumulation phase.”
Ko argued that continued purchases during flat or falling prices would provide stronger evidence of allocation demand than inflows that follow a rapid rally. Bitcoin gained 25% in August, meaning some recent ETF purchases may have been driven by price momentum rather than long-term accumulation.
Data cited in an earlier report showed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs collected $3.52 billion during August, recording positive flows on 16 of 21 trading days. The funds maintained demand while Bitcoin climbed from the low-$60,000 area toward $80,000.
ETF products did not prevent losses earlier in 2026. During the first half of the year, the funds registered a combined $5.29 billion in net outflows as Bitcoin fell from approximately $94,000 to $63,000, according to the previous Fed and ETF analysis.
Bitfinex analysts said stablecoin supply growth has also provided support during the latest recovery. Even with fresh capital entering the market, profitable holders could add selling pressure as $BTC moves toward the top of its range.
More than 71% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at a profit, compared with about 67% when the asset traded above $82,500 during its May consolidation. Bitfinex attributed the difference to summer accumulation, which lowered the short-term holder cost basis to $68,400 at its weakest point.
At similar prices, a larger share of holders can now sell without realizing a loss. Bitfinex said supply in profit is approaching its historical average of 74.7%, with previous moves above that threshold often occurring during transitions from bear to bull markets.
Fed decision and CPI could resolve the range
Interest-rate expectations remain the main external test for Bitcoin ahead of the Sep. 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are considering a 25-basis-point increase from the current federal funds target range of 3.50%–3.75%, Ko said.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish tone during his Jackson Hole speech, after which CME FedWatch probabilities for a September increase climbed to around 66%. The estimate has moved with each subsequent economic release and should not be treated as a Fed commitment.
Stronger August employment figures renewed the case for tighter policy. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, according to figures cited by Bitfinex. Manufacturing activity also expanded, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 54.6, although elevated input costs continued to raise inflation concerns.
US inflation data will provide the next evidence for policymakers. As previously detailed, the Producer Price Index is scheduled for Sep. 10, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Sep. 11 and the Fed decision on Sep. 16.
“A hot print that pushes yields and the dollar sharply higher would be the cleanest test of Bitcoin’s resilience,” Ko said.
The two-year Treasury yield recently moved above 4.34%, while Ko placed the 10-year yield near 4.8%. Higher yields can reduce demand for assets that do not pay interest by giving investors access to stronger returns from US government debt.
Bitfinex said the important signal would be continued ETF buying while short-term yields remain elevated. Persistent demand under such conditions would indicate that the policy rate no longer acts as Bitcoin’s main constraint, according to the analysts.
Treasury buybacks provide another liquidity test
The US Treasury’s expanded buyback operation on Sep. 9 will give investors another measure of bond-market liquidity before the inflation data and Fed meeting.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced in August that the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year nominal coupon securities would increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The higher limits are scheduled to remain in place from Sep. 9 through Nov. 4.
After the announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield dropped from a 19-year high above 5.34% to 5.19%, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.647%. During the same period, Bitcoin climbed 8.2% from $64,100 to $69,500 in less than 12 hours, although Treasury officials did not establish that the buyback change caused the rally.
The move also triggered $1.44 billion in short liquidations across major crypto exchanges, including $1.29 billion within one hour, according to an earlier Treasury buyback report.
For the next breakout attempt, Ko said investors should track ETF flows, spot-market buying near current levels, and Bitcoin’s reaction to Treasury yields. He also wants to see whether futures open interest grows meaningfully alongside any move outside the $78,000–$82,000 range, with CPI due Sep. 11 and the FOMC decision scheduled for Sep. 16.
