Bitcoin needs sustained buying above $86,500
According to the team’s figures, about 1.39 million $BTC had a cost basis between $84,000 and $86,500 as of Sep. 30. Bitfinex described the concentration as overhead supply, with holders’ purchase prices forming an important test for incoming demand.
In the analysts’ assessment, sustained trading above $86,500 would return that supply to profit and leave a clearer route toward Bitcoin’s $87,722 yearly opening price. Their condition concerns Bitcoin holding above the range, rather than briefly reaching its upper boundary.
“The question now is whether spot demand can sustain the move,” the team said.
Within its latest commentary, Bitfinex also identified a downside condition: sustained trading below $81,300, combined with ETF outflows, would weaken the current structure. The warning ties the price threshold to declining fund demand rather than treating a price decline alone as sufficient evidence.
In a Sep. 30 report on Bitcoin’s spot demand, the analysts had placed holdings acquired between $82,500 and $84,000 at 306,000 $BTC, up from about 110,000 $BTC on Sep. 27. They said buying within that lower band had reduced the coins held by investors waiting to sell near breakeven.
U.S. ETF inflows restore part of the demand cushion
For the U.S. fund market, Bitfinex reported $170.2 million in net inflows on Oct. 1, following roughly $149 million in net outflows on Sep. 30. The renewed purchases brought its Bitfinex Absorption-to-Emission Ratio, or BAER, back close to five times daily Bitcoin issuance.
The measure compares ETF buying with newly mined Bitcoin. According to the team, purchases around five times daily issuance are supportive of a sustained advance, provided inflows remain near that level across subsequent sessions.
“We would now want to see inflows around that level sustained,” the analysts said.
Before the reversal, Bitfinex’s ratio had fallen from 25.6 times daily issuance on Sep. 21 to 1.8 times on Sep. 29. The following day’s ETF withdrawals implied a negative reading for that session, according to the team.
Alongside the slowdown in fund buying, the analysts said futures open interest fell sharply through Sep. 29, leaving less leverage in the market. In their Sep. 30 assessment, they cautioned that removing leveraged positions can limit liquidation risk without supplying the fresh purchases needed to lift prices.
Earlier coverage of ETF buying and leverage, published Sep. 24, recorded $999 million entering U.S. Bitcoin ETFs on Sep. 21 and $714.7 million on Sep. 22. Wojciech Kaszycki, strategy adviser to BTCS S.A., said cash purchases had supported the rally’s start before borrowed positions accumulated.
In that assessment, Kaszycki favored examining ETF inflows over several weeks and comparing futures positioning with price changes. He warned that risk could rise if traders added leverage faster than cash buyers entered the market.
The daily chart places price at the $84,012 level
On the TradingView daily chart, Bitcoin’s $84,038 price stood almost directly on the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $84,012.25. The retracement spans the chart’s $126,294.44 high and $57,876.66 low.
Above the price, the same chart places the 50% retracement at $92,085.55 and the 38.2% level at $100,158.85. Below it, the 78.6% level sits at $72,518.06. Those are the plotted retracement levels, rather than price targets supplied by Bitfinex.
The daily relative strength index reads 60.69, while its displayed moving average stands at 64.92. The RSI remains above its neutral midpoint of 50 but below its average, showing a lower reading than the smoothed measure of recent momentum.
Within the daily Aroon panel, the orange line reads 21.43%, and the blue line reads 0%. The chart shows the orange reading declining from its recent peak as Bitcoin trades below the highs reached during September’s advance.
On the separate 4-hour chart, Bitcoin trades at $84,168.74, just below the Bollinger Bands’ middle line at $84,226.87. The upper band sits at $86,091.67, with the lower band at $82,362.08.
The latest retreat has brought price from above the upper band toward the middle line on that chart. Beneath the price panel, the Awesome Oscillator remains positive at 1,557.71, although its latest histogram bar is red, indicating a lower reading than the preceding bar.
Softer U.S. data leaves Treasury yields in focus
In an Oct. 2 report on the jobs-driven Bitcoin rally, September U.S. payroll growth was reported at 29,000, below the 90,000 economists had expected. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, while August’s payroll increase was revised to 133,000 from 162,000.
The report also cited more than $120 million in Bitcoin short liquidations over 24 hours as the price approached $87,000. Its account linked the rally to weaker employment data and the forced closure of bearish positions.
In their supplied comments, Bitfinex analysts separately described the softer PCE inflation reading as constructive for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. They said the inflation release had not been enough to ease overall macro conditions.
Referring to their Sep. 23 Intelligence Update, the team said Bitcoin’s rally had primarily depended on investment flows while Treasury yields remained relatively stable. A renewed increase in yields could make interest rates a main market driver again, they warned.
According to the analysts, higher Treasury yields increase the returns available on dollar assets, while a stronger U.S. dollar puts additional pressure on risk appetite. The team said Bitcoin’s latest advance suggested underlying demand remained present despite recent volatility in ETF flows.
