Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, suggests that the crypto market could be entering an extended bullish phase, and Bitcoin will go higher in Q1 2026.
Speaking during the Sui Basecamp event, Pal explained that a confluence of macroeconomic and technical indicators now supports the case for a parabolic phase in digital assets. This period, which he calls “The Banana Zone,” may push Bitcoin and other cryptos significantly higher through the first quarter—or potentially even the second quarter of 2026.
Raoul Pal says #bitcoin is going MUCH higher by Q1 2026 pic.twitter.com/j2NmAceMrL
— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDailyio) May 5, 2025
The expectation aligns with ongoing macro conditions, including a delayed rate-cutting cycle, and forward-looking liquidity models that continue to trend upward despite broader market uncertainty.
Bitcoin Could Reach $450,000
Pal highlighted that a tight correlation exists between liquidity levels and asset prices, noting that 90% of Bitcoin’s price movement and 97% of Nasdaq’s can be explained by liquidity flows. As such, he emphasized that tracking global liquidity remains key to understanding market direction.
Although recent investor sentiment has turned cautious, Pal reported that macro indicators still support further gains. He pointed to improving business cycle data, particularly the ISM index, which he believes is bottoming out and could climb significantly.
The ISM Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures U.S. business activity. Readings above 50 signal expansion, and below 50 indicate contraction.
According to Pal, if the ISM levels reach 57, currently below 50, his internal models project that Bitcoin could touch $450,000. Pal noted that this surge would also impact altcoins, ushering in the altcoin season.
Market Phase Echoes Previous Frenzy Cycles
In the video, Pal indicated that cryptocurrencies have now entered what he classifies as the third cycle phase, defined by intense speculation and rapid price movements. He drew parallels to earlier periods like 2009 and 2020, when liquidity spikes preceded institutional inflows.
While prone to sharp corrections, this phase often sees extended upward trajectories. Pal cautioned that even 35% drawdowns may not signal an end to the cycle, though they could create confusion among investors. He warned against using leverage and urged holders to remain cautious during this volatile stage.
Bitcoin’s Path Compared to Amazon’s Long-Term Rise
Elsewhere in the crypto space, new analyses suggest that Bitcoin may be breaking away from its traditional four-year halving cycle. Financial researchers have begun comparing Bitcoin’s projected growth to Amazon’s historical performance between 2002 and 2025.
Notably, Amazon’s stock rose from under $1 to over $230 over that period, despite repeated downturns and skepticism. This comparison implies that Bitcoin might follow a similar long-term trajectory if structural cycles become less influential. Analysts at Bitcoin Archive believe this evolving pattern could define the asset’s next 20 years.
