Galaxy Research suggests that Bitcoin may not yet have hit its bottom in the current cycle, and according to historical indicators, a base could form for $BTC between $40,000 and $46,000 in the base scenario.
According to the company’s report, only 4 out of 13 of the bottom signals seen in Bitcoin’s past cycles have been triggered so far. Based on on-chain data and market indicators, Galaxy stated that the main scenario in the current downturn points to a bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, while in a more severe capitulation scenario, the price could fall to the $30,000 to $37,000 range.
The report argues that Bitcoin’s price movements over its 17-year history have generally followed four-year cycles. These cycles typically involve a strong upward peak, followed by a sharp drop to a low point, and then a subsequent recovery. According to Galaxy Research, despite the halving effect diminishing over time and expectations of a “super cycle,” current data suggests that the four-year cycle structure remains valid.
The company stated that the peak seen in October 2025 was the “calmest” cycle peak in Bitcoin history. While previous cycles saw more pronounced signs of extreme euphoria and overvaluation, this time only a limited number of classic warning indicators came into play during the peak. According to Galaxy, this suggests that the potential bottom in the current cycle may also be shallower compared to past cycles.
The report states, “We assume that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out in the current decline, and the data supports this assumption. A calmer peak in October 2025 will likely lead to a shallower bottom. Historical analogies suggest that in the base scenario for the current decline, the bottom could be between $40,000 and $46,000, sometime from today to the fourth quarter of 2026.”
Galaxy Research noted that the declines from peak to trough in previous cycles have become less pronounced. In past cycles, Bitcoin declined from peak to trough by approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively. In the current cycle, the price has fallen by approximately 51% since its October 2025 peak, which is still considered more moderate compared to historical lows.
The report also noted that in past cycles, the bottom formed approximately 12 to 13 months after the peak. In the current cycle, however, since about eight months have passed since the October 2025 peak, the window for bottom formation has not yet fully opened. According to Galaxy, the historical cycle calendar suggests that a potential bear market bottom may form more likely towards the end of 2026.
The company’s assessment also highlighted that Bitcoin’s realized price, meaning the average cost basis for investors, is significantly higher in this cycle compared to previous periods. According to the report, Bitcoin’s cost basis is approximately $53,000. This means that even if a drop as sharp as in past cycles occurs, the bottom in dollar terms could be even higher.
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What Scenarios Exist for Bitcoin’s Bottom?
Galaxy Research listed the different scenarios as follows:
- Base scenario: It has been suggested that if Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio falls to the 0.75-0.86 range, the bottom could be approximately between $40,000 and $46,000.
- Hard capitulation scenario: It has been suggested that in an environment similar to the deep selling pressure seen in 2018 and 2022, $BTC could fall to the $30,000 to $37,000 range.
- A shallower bearish scenario: It has been noted that if strong buying keeps the price near cost basis, Bitcoin could form a base between $51,000 and $54,000.
- Four-year average touch scenario: It has been noted that Bitcoin touching its four-year average of around $62,000 would represent only a 51% decline in the current downturn.
Galaxy also argued that the “77% to 85% drop from the peak” rule used in past cycles might be misleading for this cycle. According to the company, since the October 2025 peak has historically occurred closer to cost basis, directly applying percentage drops from past cycles to today could lead to overly pessimistic results. While this calculation implies a bottom for Bitcoin in the $19,000 to $29,000 range, Galaxy stated that this doesn’t fully reflect the current cycle dynamics.
However, Galaxy Research added that the cost basis is not a fixed ground. The report stated that if investors sell at a loss during a strong sell-off, the actual price could be pulled down, and therefore the theoretical base could also fall along with the price. The company noted that the current price is only about 14 percent above the cost basis, and this difference could quickly close in a potential panic sell-off.
According to Galaxy, the amplitude of Bitcoin cycles is gradually shrinking. The sharper rises and falls of previous cycles are being replaced by calmer peaks and shallower pullbacks. However, the company argues that this doesn’t mean Bitcoin will never bottom out, only that the potential bottom might occur in a higher region than in past cycles.
*This is not investment advice.
