Bitcoin’s bear market is entering its final phase and could bottom out around the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which runs from June 11 to July 19, according to a June 12 report from BIT Research.
Its main thesis is that a mix of technical patterns, weak market sentiment, and easing inflation pressure could set the stage for the next big BTC recovery after months of decline.
World Cup Window Could Be a Potential Market Bottom
According to BIT, Bitcoin has been following an A-B-C structure since the bear market started in October 2025. Wave A saw the cryptocurrency drop into the $60,000 to $69,000 range. It was then carried up toward the $80,000 to $90,000 zone by Wave B and topped out near $83,000 in the middle of May before it faded.
Now, according to the crypto research firm, the market has entered the final Wave C correction, and its target zone for a possible bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000, with the FIFA World Cup period the most likely timeframe for that low to form.
On the sentiment side, the report noted that the Greed & Fear Index has gone back to what it called historically depressed levels, something it says matches up closely with where things stood at the 2022 bottom.
In addition, the BIT analysts pointed out that the stochastic indicator has also dropped into deeply oversold territory and that Bitcoin is currently trading at least two standard deviations below its weekly moving average.
They also marked the $61,576 level as one that could potentially offer support and highlighted Bitcoin’s Realized Price, currently at around $54,591, as a key reference for where the asset becomes undervalued.
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“History suggests that while prices may briefly dip below this level, they rarely remain there for long,” the report noted.
However, the macro piece of the puzzle is inflation, and BIT directly compared the current environment with that of 2022, when cooling inflation helped to mark the cycle low. According to the firm, something similar could be needed this time around too.
Where Bitcoin Is Right Now
The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap has had a rough few weeks. After getting rejected near $73,000 at the start of June, it fell through $70,000, then $65,000, and eventually broke below the long-held $60,000 support.
That drop bottomed out just above $59,000 last Friday, marking Bitcoin’s lowest point in nearly 2 years, before it recovered to around $63,000. At the time of writing, the asset had dipped back below $63,000, and was down over 22% across 30 days and almost 42% off its price from one year ago.
Much of that volatility has been down to geopolitics, with the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran forcing the cryptocurrency to seesaw with every piece of news about an attack, a retaliation, or the announcement of a potential peace deal.
For now, BIT’s researchers believe the market may still need one to three months before a confirmed reversal appears. But they maintain that the first whistle at Mexico’s Estadio Azteca to start the 2026 World Cup may have also kicked off the current cycle’s final chapter.
