In his latest technical analysis video, Benjamin Cowen described Bitcoin’s (BTC) current situation as “caught between two fires.”
Cowen stated that Bitcoin is caught between technical levels, four-year cyclical dynamics, and global stock market movements, and shared his critical predictions for the coming months.
It was stated that the Bitcoin price has been fluctuating between the Bear Market Resistance Band above and the 200-Week Moving Average below, failing to make a clear directional breakout. It was also mentioned that the seasonal strengthening window behind the rebound seen in July is expected to end within 2 to 4 weeks.
The analyst warned that, as in past midterm election/cycle years (2018, 2022), the gains made in July could be reversed by weakness in August and September.
He added that a potential 10-20% correction in US stock markets (S&P 500) in August or September could be a catalyst to trigger the final cycle bottom in Bitcoin.
Cowen described the current market structure as a less volatile version of 2018, suggesting that a final liquidity event could occur in the last quarter of the year that would reset on-chain indicators.
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Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin is moving between two key levels on technical charts, indicating that the market is heading towards a decision point. He noted that upward attempts are being blocked by the bear market resistance band, while downward dips are finding support from the 200-week moving average, arguing that this is consistent with the market’s four-year cyclical pattern.
Cowen noted that the positive performance in July paralleled past cyclical data, but suggested that this upward trend might not be permanent. Recalling similar July rallies in 2018 and 2022 that were reversed in August and September, the analyst advised investors to exercise caution over the next two to four weeks.
According to the analysis, a correction in traditional stock markets may be necessary for Bitcoin to reach its ultimate bottom.
Cowen predicts that if the S&P 500 index peaks in August or September and then experiences a pullback, this could also drag down the Bitcoin price, forming a cycle bottom.
*This is not investment advice.
