The market narrative is finally shifting from a local bottom to a macro bottom.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s breakout above $66,000 has sparked a wave of bullish sentiment.
Many analysts are arguing that the cycle low may already be in. While $BTC was stuck consolidating between $60k- $65k, the discussion largely revolved around whether it was simply a local bottom.
Now, however, the focus is gradually shifting toward a move into the $70,000 region.
Looking at the charts, that shift isn’t entirely without merit.
According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin has once again flashed the same three technical signals that have historically coincided with macro cycle bottoms.
Those signals include the monthly RSI dropping to around 43.65, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) falling to roughly -71, and Bitcoin trading near its 50-month moving average.
Notably, the pattern has repeated across previous cycles.
In 2015, the setup appeared around $235 before Bitcoin [$BTC] went on to rally more than 8,300%.
In early 2019, it flashed near $3,333, preceding a gain of 1,900%. The same technical cluster returned in late 2022, around $16k, shortly after Bitcoin bottomed near $15k, before the market rallied 675%.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s correction to $58k last month triggered this same setup once again.
So, if history is any guide, this alignment has consistently marked one of Bitcoin’s strongest long-term accumulation zones, adding weight to the idea that the market may already be transitioning from a local bottom to a macro one.
Liquidity remains Bitcoin’s biggest test
Bullish continuation ultimately depends on liquidity, and that’s where Bitcoin’s rally could still face a key test.
From a technical standpoint, stablecoin dominance has climbed to around 13%, narrowing the gap with Ethereum’s 10%+ market dominance.
At the same time, the total stablecoin market cap has fallen by more than $10 billion over the past month, suggesting capital is still flowing out rather than back into the crypto.
Notably, on-chain data supports this trend.
As the chart below shows, Bitcoin is holding above $65,000, but the liquidity needed to sustain the rally appears to be fading. Stablecoins have been leaving exchanges for 35 consecutive days, while Bitcoin has yet to see a meaningful pickup in spot accumulation.
In other words, price is breaking out, but liquidity isn’t following.
Against this backdrop, the shift from a local bottom to a macro bottom may still need stronger confirmation.
While Bitcoin’s breakout above $66,000 is technically bullish. However, the lack of fresh liquidity suggests the move could struggle to sustain enough momentum for a decisive breakout into the $70k zone.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s move above $66k strengthens the case that a major bottom may be forming.
- But weak liquidity and stablecoin outflows could limit the next move toward $70k.
