In brief
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed $2.1B in June, pacing May’s $2.4B total outflows.
- Net assets declined $33B from $109B to $77B in the past month, in line with Bitcoin’s 27% drop.
- Analysts argued that the pace of ETF outflows is “exhausting rather than building,” but offered differing views on what could turn things around.
The crypto market outlook remains gloomy as spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed against a challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.
Bitcoin ETFs have shed $2.1 billion in June so far, pacing May’s $2.4 billion outflows, according to SoSoValue data. Wednesday’s $214 million outflow shows the trend remains intact even after the June 4 inflow blip broke the 13-day losing streak that drained roughly $4.4 billion from these products.
Since May 10, the total net assets have declined by roughly $33 billion from $109 billion to $77 billion, in line with Bitcoin’s 27% drop from its May 10 peak of $81,443 to lows of $59,353.
Despite the sustained negative trend, the pace of ETF outflows has “moderated materially,” Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, told Decrypt. “The pressure has not cleanly stabilised yet, but it is exhausting rather than building.”
Behind the ETF curtain
According to Haeems, there are three reasons behind the outflow streak: leveraged funds redeeming shares after arbitraging spot ETFs against futures, long migration out of the highest-fee fund among the U.S. spot products, which has now surrendered nearly $27 billion since launch, and capital rotating toward AI equities and upcoming tech IPOs.
“The first two are mechanical and self-limiting. The third is the one we watch, because it is about risk appetite rather than market structure,” he said. “Several other funds took net inflows on Monday even while the headline stayed negative, which tells you the selling is concentrated rather than general.”
The outflows are driven mainly by uncertainty stemming from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which has entered its 103rd day. The conflict has caused oil prices to spike, inducing massive volatility that has impacted on energy prices and U.S. inflation numbers.
The annual inflation rate rose from 3.8% to 4.2% in May, adding to the Federal Reserve’s woes, which has kept the interest rate unchanged between 3.50% to 3.75% for six months.
“While the higher-than-expected CPI reading is not ideal for risk assets such as Bitcoin, I don’t believe it significantly changes the market outlook,” Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, told Decrypt.
For ETF outflows to dry up, he said, “we need to see spot demand pick up and Bitcoin reclaim well into the $70,000s range.” Once Bitcoin starts showing sustained strength and attracting attention again, “ETF flows are likely to follow,” he added.
Haeems believes otherwise. “What stops the bleed is a rate signal rather than a price rally,” he said, explaining that “the carry trade needs the basis to pay again, and the allocator bid needs the market’s hike pricing to fade.”
Not all inflation data pointed higher. The month-over-month core CPI dropped to 0.2%, which the “rates market read as a mild relief,” Haeems said.
Bitcoin’s quarter-end outlook
Bitcoin is up 1.5% over the past 24 hours and is trading at around $62,560, according to CoinGecko data.
Derivatives data show that aggregated open interest has continued to climb after the weekend selloff, assisting Bitcoin’s recovery to $63,000. The Coinbase Premium index continues to hover below zero, but has vastly improved compared to early June levels, according to Velo data.
Experts do not share the same take for Bitcoin’s quarter-end outlook.
While Singh remains bearish and does not rule out a potential drop into the $50,000 range, Haeems remains conservative, expecting flows to stabilize before price does.
“The market has spent a week defending the 200-week moving average, and a fragile base around that level looks more plausible to us than a sharp recovery,” Haeems said. “The first meaningful technical reclaim levels sit well above spot, and next week’s Fed meeting is the obvious catalyst in either direction.”
Haeems highlighted the asymmetry in the current setup.
“A decisive break below $60,000 would open considerably more downside than the upside available in a relief move,” he said. “If the June inflation print shows energy bleeding into core, hike pricing hardens, and the consolidation extends. If core holds, the second half of the year sets up better than the second half of June.”
On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users favor the bearish outlook, putting a 71% chance on its next move taking it to $55,000 rather than $84,000.
