“Overall this points to a stabilizing but still fragile ETF demand backdrop, where investors are no longer accelerating exits but are gradually repositioning capital, providing a potential floor to downside,” the firm said.
The other notable dynamic is the decoupling of the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Fed interest rate expectations, and WTI crude oil futures. While oil prices have collapsed, the two-year yield has strengthened, hovering at 4.21% as of this writing, the highest since February 2025. (Check the Daily Signal.)
The decoupling indicates that oil and geopolitical headwinds for risk assets have been replaced by Fed rate-hike expectations. It’s possible markets expect the second-order effects of the March oil-price spike to keep inflation higher in the near term, raising the likelihood of interest-rate increases.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE, is expected to confirm the trend. According to FactSet, it is forecast to have increased 0.37% on the month, lifting the 12-month rate to 3.4%, which would be the highest since May 2024.
Overall, the slower, yet still bleeding ETFs and hawkish hints from bond yields suggest lower odds of a convincing $BTC price recovery in the short term.
And there’s also what Strategy, the largest publicly listed $BTC holder, does to address concerns about the price volatility of its STRC preferred stock. Stay alert!
