Bitcoin has closed a candle below its 200-week moving average (200WMA) for the first time since June 2022, and this could determine its next course of action.
The latest weekly close came in at $59,486, which sat below the 200WMA at $62,443. Since then, Bitcoin has struggled under $60,000 and now trades about 53% below its all-time high of $126,000, reached on Oct. 6, 2025.
The 200WMA, which tracks around 1,400 days of price data, has long helped traders separate bull markets from bear markets. When Bitcoin falls below this level, it indicates a shift in the long-term trend. As a result, this recent breakdown could dictate Bitcoin’s next price action.
Bitcoin 2022 Cycle Suggests Further Downsides
Historical patterns surrounding Bitcoin provide mixed data on what comes next, especially whether the crypto firstborn has finally found a cycle bottom or whether steeper declines could emerge.
Notably, the last time this breakdown occurred was in 2022. Specifically, in the second week of June 2022, the price closed at $20,552, while the moving average stood near $22,300. After that, the market fell further, reaching a low of $16,500 in November 2022.
At that point, Bitcoin traded at about 0.68 times the 200WMA and had dropped roughly 77% from its previous high of around $69,000.
The price then stayed below the moving average for 16 months before finally moving back above it in October 2023. A similar path could play out if current support levels break.
The February 2026 low of $59,967 now acts as the first support level to watch. If this fails, attention shifts to the realized price near $54,000, which could present stronger support.
However, if Bitcoin follows the same pattern as 2022 and again reaches 0.68 times the 200WMA, the price could fall toward the $41,000 to $42,000 range before finding a bottom.
Reason for Optimism
However, other cycles present bullish data. For context, Bitcoin has only moved below the 200WMA four times: 2015, 2018/2019, the March 2020 COVID crash, and June 2022.
Interestingly, in three of those cases, specifically 2015, 2018/2019, and March 2020, the move happened close to the market bottom and was followed by new all-time highs within about 12 to 24 months. Only 2022 saw steeper declines after the breakdown.
Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, continues to support the bullish view, insisting that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom may be around $60,000. He believes that money is not leaving Bitcoin but is instead shifting into other areas like artificial intelligence.
He estimates that about $400 billion has moved into AI infrastructure. Strategy itself holds 843,706 BTC, although its average purchase price of around $75,000 means the position currently sits at a loss, which adds some context to his outlook.
Technically, Bitcoin has also shown some support. The price recently held just above $57,802, which matches the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the November 2022 low to the October 2025 high. This level often attracts buyers and can act as a turning point.
What Traders Should Watch Next
Bitcoin’s next move will depend on how it behaves around the 200WMA in the coming weeks. If it manages to close back above the $61,000 to $62,500 range, it would match past cycles like 2015, 2018, and 2020, where the market recovered after a period of fear.
If the price stays below this level, the chances of a longer downturn increase, similar to what happened in 2022. Factors like ETF flows, options market activity, and key price levels like $59,967 and $54,000 will play an important role in deciding whether Bitcoin stabilizes or continues to move lower.
