The Federal Reserve will announce its first interest rate decision under new Chairman Kevin Warsh tomorrow. The biggest question mark for Warsh, nominated by President Donald Trump at the end of January to head the Fed, is whether he will pursue interest rate hikes to control inflation or whether he will open the door to rate cuts, as Trump has long demanded.
Warsh will chair his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as chairman on Wednesday and will hold a press conference after the decision. Bond markets, in particular, are expected to react sensitively to the messages Warsh delivers.
UBS economist Jonathan Pingle, in a note he published, stated that the press conference would be critically important, saying, “This will be Kevin Warsh’s first public appearance as chairman. We really don’t know what his policy views are.”
Economists expect Warsh to adopt a more neutral stance at his first meeting. The main reason for this is that the Fed has to make decisions in a very challenging economic environment. The renewed rise in inflation in the US makes it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in the near future, while the recovery seen in the job market since the beginning of the year has weakened one of the key justifications for rate cuts.
The Fed is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at around 3.6 percent at tomorrow’s meeting. The rate has been at this level since last December. Interest rate cuts by the Fed can, over time, lower borrowing costs in many areas, including mortgages, auto loans, and corporate loans.
Below you can see the Fed’s interest rate decisions and expectations since 2024.
Date
Interest Rate Announced
Expectation
Previous
June 17, 2026
?
3.75%
3.75%
April 29, 2026
3.75%
3.75%
3.75%
March 18, 2026
3.75%
3.75%
3.75%
January 28, 2026
3.75%
3.75%
3.75%
December 10, 2025
3.75%
3.75%
4.00%
October 29, 2025
4.00%
4.00%
4.25%
September 17, 2025
4.25%
4.25%
4.50%
July 30, 2025
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
June 18, 2025
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
May 7, 2025
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
March 19, 2025
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
January 29, 2025
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
December 18, 2024
4.50%
4.50%
4.75%
November 7, 2024
4.75%
4.75%
5.00%
September 18, 2024
5.00%
5.25%
5.50%
July 31, 2024
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
June 12, 2024
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
May 1, 2024
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
March 20, 2024
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
January 31, 2024
5.50%
5.50%
5.50%
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However, some changes are on the agenda that could disappoint those expecting interest rate cuts in the market. The Fed is expected to remove statements from its decision text that indicated the next step could be an interest rate cut and to use more neutral language. In recent weeks, some Fed officials have suggested that the central bank’s next move might be an interest rate increase, not a cut.
The Fed will also release its quarterly economic projections. The projections released in March had foreseen one interest rate cut this year. However, economists believe the new estimates may indicate no change in interest rates for 2026, but could signal one or two rate cuts next year.
In the Polymarket forecasting market, expectations for the interest rate decision are almost entirely focused on keeping rates unchanged. According to the platform’s data, the probability of “no interest rate change” is priced at close to 100%, while a 25 basis point cut, a 50 basis point or greater cut, a 25 basis point increase, and an increase of more than 50 basis points are each priced with a probability of less than 1%.
*This is not investment advice.
