Amid growing volatility and downward pressure in the cryptocurrency market, a new Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction has surfaced. Digital asset investment firm 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin’s value could drop to $45,000.
In the firm’s report, Markus Thielen, Head of Research, outlines several factors supporting this forecast. BeInCrypto further explores this possibility by analyzing key on-chain metrics in its assessment of Bitcoin’s current outlook.
Key Reasons for the Adjustment in Bitcoin Forecast
Bitcoin price currently trades below $55,000 despite hitting a new all-time high of $73,750 in March. According to 10x Research, this significant correction was expected due to changes in Bitcoin’s active addresses and broader market decisions.
“Bitcoin addresses peaked in November 2023 and sharply declined after the first quarter of 2024. When the amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders began to decrease in April, while long-term holders took advantage of high prices to exit, it suggested that a cycle top had been reached,” the research company explained.
BeInCrypto reviewed Bitcoin’s active addresses data and found the analysis to be accurate. In November 2023, active addresses totaled around 1.20 million, and by March, the figure still exceeded 1 million.
Read more: 7 Best Crypto Exchanges in the USA for Bitcoin (BTC) Trading
Bitcoin Active Addresses. Source: Santiment
However, the number of active addresses has since fallen to 612,000, signaling that hundreds of thousands of participants have stopped engaging with the cryptocurrency. This sharp decline highlights reduced activity on the Bitcoin network, suggesting a weakening interest or participation in recent months.
Apart from that, the report mentioned the $1 billion Bitcoin ETF outflows this week as a bearish sign. It also pinpointed the weak US economy and massive futures liquidation as other reasons that could drive BTC down to $45,000.
Data from Glassnode shows that the Mayer Multiple seems to agree with the price decrease. Often used to identify speculative bubbles in Bitcoin, a Mayer Multiple reading above 1 typically signals a bullish market trend.
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple. Source: Glassnode
When the metric falls below this threshold, the cryptocurrency becomes more vulnerable to a notable decline. At press time, the Mayer Multiple stands at 0.8, and Bitcoin’s price remains below the 200-day EMA, indicating that BTC could face another drop below $50,000.
BTC Price Prediction: $50,000 Is Crucial
According to the weekly BTC/USD chart, traders began this month around the same price levels seen in November 2021, just before the Bitcoin bear market of 2022. After Bitcoin’s value declined toward the end of 2021, it dropped to $36,500 in January 2022 when it lost support at $50,000.
Currently, a similar support level exists around $50,000, and Bitcoin appears likely to test this level again. If this happens, BTC’s price could fall to $48,338, with a possibility of closing in on $45,000.
Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
Bitcoin Weekly Analysis. Source: TradingView
Failure to bounce from this level might lead Bitcoin down toward $40,000. However, this outcome might change if the Mayer Multiple rises above 1, signaling a potential restart of a bull market, which could push Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high.
