Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s sluggish performance isn’t because liquidity has disappeared. Instead, he says the AI investment boom has become the market’s biggest capital magnet, absorbing nearly every fresh dollar that would have otherwise flowed into crypto.
Speaking with Bonnie Blockchain on June 26, Hayes explained why Bitcoin continues to lag even as global money supply expands.
Where Is All the Money Going?
Hayes pointed to the explosion in AI-related investments as the biggest reason Bitcoin has failed to rally.
According to him, the rise in dollar M2 has been largely matched by massive spending on AI companies and their supply chains. Instead of buying Bitcoin, investors are pouring money into semiconductor manufacturers, AI hardware firms, and companies supporting the artificial intelligence ecosystem.
He compared today’s AI frenzy to the way investors previously chased Apple’s suppliers whenever Apple entered a new growth cycle. In his view, AI has simply become the market’s dominant trade.
Why AI Profits Aren’t Flowing Into Crypto
Many investors expected profits from AI stocks to eventually rotate into Bitcoin. Hayes disagrees.
He said people who made substantial money from AI are first spending on real-world assets like homes, luxury cars, expensive watches, premium travel, and even private aircraft. Others are choosing to diversify by buying more Nasdaq-listed technology companies instead of entering crypto.
Hayes also noted that Bitcoin’s recent price performance has weakened its appeal as an inflation hedge for many investors. Rather than buying BTC, some may simply decide they should own more technology stocks instead.
Because of that, he doesn’t expect meaningful AI-driven capital to move into crypto until the AI investment narrative begins to break down.
If AI Falls, Crypto Won’t Be Safe
Hayes also pushed back against the idea that a correction in AI stocks would automatically benefit Bitcoin.
Instead, he expects Bitcoin and the broader crypto market to initially fall alongside AI equities. During periods of market stress, investors typically sell their most liquid assets first to meet margin calls and raise cash quickly. Since crypto trades 24/7, Hayes says it often becomes the first asset class investors liquidate.
What Happens After the Sell-Off?
Although Hayes expects crypto to decline alongside AI during the initial panic, he doesn’t think that correlation will last forever.
Once forced selling eases, markets will begin separating the strongest assets from the weakest. Hayes believes only after the AI boom loses momentum will investors seriously reconsider Bitcoin and other digital assets.
