Benjamin Cowen, a cryptocurrency analyst closely followed by the public, highlighted the “Bear Market Resistance Band” and the 200-week moving average (MA) as critical factors in determining the market’s direction in his latest analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price movements.
Cowen stated that Bitcoin is currently in a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation.
Benjamin Cowen pointed out that historical cycles show Bitcoin has repeatedly tested this resistance band during bear markets and has generally been rejected from there. He noted that in the current outlook, this resistance band is located between $70,000 and $74,000 for an upward breakout, and that Bitcoin remaining below this region keeps the downside risks alive.
Cowen cited the sharp drop in Bitcoin in June, where it opened the week at $73,000 and closed at $63,000, saying, “We saw a $10,000 drop in a single week. This resistance band is putting downward pressure on the trend, while the 200-week moving average is trying to form upward support. Bitcoin is currently struggling to find direction between these two levels.”
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Unlike investors who believe the market has “passed its lowest point,” Cowen argues that adherence to 4-year market cycles is necessary, noting that the fact that the price hasn’t yet fallen below the realization level is remarkable. Referring to capitulation periods in past cycles (late 2014, 2018, and 2022), the renowned analyst stated that the possibility of testing lower levels later in the year remains.
Cowen stated that historical data shows Bitcoin typically forms a local bottom at the beginning of summer (June) and then initiates a rebound rally later in the summer (July-August), and made the following predictions:
In both 2018 and 2022, the market, which had been weak in June, experienced upward correction movements towards the middle and end of July. If Bitcoin manages to hold onto its 200-week moving average as support, we could see a short-term rebound in July similar to the one in 2022.
In his analysis, Cowen also touched upon the altcoin market, recalling that during the 2018 cycle, while Bitcoin moved sideways, altcoins were severely crushed in July. Noting the rapid decline in crypto interest on social media, the analyst warned that despite the existence of hundreds of thousands of altcoins in the market, the decrease in individual interest could continue to put pressure on them.
*This is not investment advice.
