Following the sharp fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market in recent weeks, new assessments regarding Bitcoin’s direction continue to emerge. According to the research firm 10x Research, the dynamics of the options market, which accelerated Bitcoin’s decline two weeks ago, may now work in the opposite direction, contributing to a price increase.
The analysis, shared by the company on its X platform, stated that mandatory hedging transactions in the options market increased selling pressure during the period when Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 level. These mechanical sales caused the decline to deepen further and contributed to Bitcoin’s price falling to $65,705.
However, according to 10x Research, current market conditions have changed significantly compared to the previous period. The analysis states that a negative gamma strike price of approximately $1.8 billion has formed near Bitcoin’s current price level. This indicates that the options market is underpricing the actual volatility.
The research firm stated that this structure could create a positive environment for Bitcoin, noting that if prices start to rise, participants in the options market might be forced to buy to balance their positions. In such a scenario, it was stated that mechanical buying could further strengthen the upward movement.
10x Research also believes that the observed improvement in investor sentiment could support prices. In particular, expectations of a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran reducing geopolitical risks, and expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may pursue a more dovish monetary policy in the future, are among the factors that could increase interest in risky assets.
Analysts note that Bitcoin is technically trying to break out of oversold territory after its recent sharp sell-off, but point out that a stronger recovery could occur in the short term if the options market reverses direction.
However, experts emphasize that option-driven purchases alone do not signify a sustained bull market, and investors should closely monitor fundamental indicators such as macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and institutional demand. Nevertheless, the current outlook suggests that there are increasing factors indicating that Bitcoin may gain room for upward movement in the short term.
*This is not investment advice.
