Bitcoin has edged slightly higher after touching lows near $58,500, but one of the most accurate forecasters of this cycle is not convinced the worst is over. Markus Thielen, Founder and CEO of 10x Research, said this week that the modest recovery is unlikely to hold and that Bitcoin could fall as low as $46,000 to $47,000 before finding its genuine cycle low.
The rest of the article remains unchanged from the previous version, with Thielen’s analysis of ETF outflows, the absence of meaningful buyers, the Elliott Wave targets, the Fed outlook and his comparisons to the 2022 to 2023 cycle all standing as written.
No Real Buyer Anywhere in Sight
Thielen’s bearish near-term view centres on a simple observation: the market has lost its primary source of demand. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, was the single largest buyer of Bitcoin year to date, deploying approximately $13 billion in acquisitions. That buying has slowed significantly. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled approximately $7 billion in net outflows since mid-May, when the first hot inflation report shifted the macro environment against risk assets.
“There’s no real buyer in the market right now,” Thielen said. “That’s why we’re still in this liquidation period from the ETFs.”
He also noted that the average ETF buyer is now significantly underwater, with many of those holders beginning to cut losses around the $60,000 level, adding further selling pressure precisely where the market needs support.
The Path to $46,000 and Back
Thielen’s Elliott Wave analysis maps out a clear structure. Bitcoin completed a five-wave advance from late 2022 into the 2025 high, and the current decline represents the corrective phase. Wave A brought Bitcoin down to approximately $63,000 in February. Wave B produced the counter-trend rally to $82,000 to $83,000. Wave C, the current decline, targets the $46,000 to $47,000 range.
Once that level is reached, Thielen expects a recovery rally of approximately 30% back toward $60,000 to $65,000 by year-end, driven by a shift in Federal Reserve posture as inflation cools and oil prices retreat following the resolution of geopolitical tensions.
The Fed Is the Key Variable
The macro vice gripping Bitcoin tightened significantly when Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed Chair in late January. Every inflation reading since has reinforced the hawkish case, and markets are now pricing a 70% probability of at least one rate hike before year-end. Until that expectation reverses, Thielen argues, Bitcoin lacks the macro catalyst needed for a sustained move higher.
He draws a direct parallel to 2022 and 2023, where Bitcoin spent months trading sideways between $16,000 and $30,000 before the Grayscale SEC victory in August 2023 finally shifted sentiment. The lesson from that cycle is that bottoms form slowly and sentiment does not turn bullish until well after the low is already in.
When Does the Bottom Form
Thielen’s base case points to a low forming sometime in Q4 2026, possibly around October, consistent with historical bear market timing patterns that suggest cycles typically bottom approximately 360 to 380 days from their peak. He plans to be a buyer below $50,000 and expects Bitcoin to be materially higher by 2027.
