US President Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, arguing that falling food and energy prices justify such a move.
However, sources suggest that if the central bank does not meet his demands, Trump may take an even harsher step and dismiss Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Trump has long expressed frustration with the Fed, but tensions have escalated following its decision last week to keep interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%. The president has appeared on Truth Social and in public to press for lower interest rates, saying lower borrowing costs would stimulate economic growth and prevent any slowdowns from trade policies.
Despite Trump’s calls, Powell signaled caution by emphasizing the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s upcoming tariff measures. The Fed’s new economic forecasts suggest there will be no further decline in inflation this year, largely due to the expected effects of additional tariffs.
“I think further progress may be delayed once tariff-induced inflation arrives,” Powell warned last week.
Trump will impose new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which he calls “Liberation Day.” The move is aimed at countering foreign tariffs on American goods, but economists warn that such policies could further complicate the Fed’s ability to maintain economic stability.
Amid the rising tensions, speculation has mounted over whether Trump could attempt to fire Powell, a move that would likely roil financial markets. Powell, whose term expires in 2026, has previously said he would not resign early even if the president asked him to.
Ian Katz, a director at research firm Capital Alpha Partners in Washington, said he did not expect Trump to fire Powell given the potential market turmoil.
“Given how aggressively Trump has asserted his authority, you can’t rule anything out,” Katz warned. “A decision that clearly gives the president more authority over monetary policy would be extremely unsettling to the market.”
Trump’s willingness to remove independent agency officials has already been demonstrated with the removal of two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Legal experts point to a 1935 Supreme Court decision, Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, that protects independent agency members from being removed without cause. If Trump were to defy that precedent, it could lead to a Supreme Court showdown that would resonate across financial markets.
*This is not investment advice.
