Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its all-time high set back in October, and more than 40 weeks into the current downturn, four separate long-term indicators are converging in a way that has historically marked the later stages of a bear market rather than the early ones, according to one analyst.
A Historically Accurate Model Nearing Its Floor
Bitcoin is currently tracking close to the lower boundary of its long-term power law, a pricing model that has held roughly 96% accuracy throughout the asset’s history. The price has not broken decisively below that boundary, but it remains at the extreme low end of the range.
Bitcoin Has Gone Nowhere Against the Nasdaq Since 2017
Bitcoin has been essentially flat against the Nasdaq for nine years, despite carrying significantly more volatility and risk over that period. The analyst pointed to a slow-moving weekly indicator measuring the Nasdaq’s value relative to Bitcoin using a 14-week relative strength reading:
- That threshold has only been reached four times since 2010: in 2015, 2019, 2022, and now.
- The current reading, near 72, is the highest on record.
- It has persisted for more than 24 weeks, longer than any prior instance.
After it fired in 2022, Bitcoin fell another 30% over the following four months. Still, in every previous completed instance, Bitcoin went on to significantly outperform the Nasdaq over the following one to three years, though the scale of that outperformance has shrunk with each cycle, with each three-year return coming in at roughly a quarter to a third of the prior cycle’s gain.
Bitcoin’s Most Oversold Reading Ever Against Gold
A similar dynamic shows up against gold:
- In February 2026, gold reached its most overbought level against Bitcoin in the pair’s history.
- That means Bitcoin has never been more oversold against the metal.
The comparison comes with a caveat: Bitcoin is roughly 20 years old, while gold has traded for centuries, and Bitcoin’s early outperformance against gold occurred while gold itself was in a prolonged bear market, making some reversion expected over time. Even so, prior readings near these levels have historically appeared close to major Bitcoin lows, with Bitcoin outperforming both gold and the dollar over the following one to three years in those instances.
Realized Price Near $53,000
Bitcoin’s realized price, its network wide cost basis, currently sits near $53,000. The realized price estimates the average price at which the existing Bitcoin supply last changed hands, and tends to understate the true figure somewhat due to lost coins and Satoshi-era holdings that have never moved.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin has both touched and briefly traded below its realized price during the final stages of a bear market, with the market continuing lower for a period afterward before eventually recovering. Returns over the subsequent 150 weeks were positive in nearly every historical instance of buying below the realized price, though those returns, too, have diminished with each cycle.
Timing Based on Bitcoin’s Historical Cycle
Past bear markets have lasted roughly 60 weeks, and this one is 40 weeks in, putting the current downturn roughly three-quarters of the way through its historical time-based length. If the pattern holds, a low could form around November, though only three completed cycles exist for comparison, a small sample that limits how much confidence can be placed in the timing.
Separate modeling by Blockworks researcher Luke Leisure suggests continued volatility and possible further downside through the end of 2026, with a clearer, more constructive path emerging in the 2027 to 2028 window based on historical patterns. That modeling should not be treated as a price target.
The analyst also referenced recent comments from a macro strategist, who has warned of 9 to 12 more months of pain from tightening liquidity. Bitcoin tends to price in such shifts earlier than other assets, potentially shortening that timeline for Bitcoin specifically relative to broader markets.
