Bitcoin’s onchain metrics are flashing their most constructive signals since early February, but underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning suggest the road to new highs will not be easy, Bitfinex shared in an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday.
Long-term holders, whose bitcoin holdings have increased by 300% since the end of 2025 to nearly 4 million tokens, have started taking $180 million in profits per day since $BTC rallied to the over the $82,000 level on May 11 before dropping from $81,000 to the lower $79,000s on Thursday.
“That is a moderate amount compared with past cycles and suggests current selling is controlled,” they said, explaining that the concern lies in daily realized losses, which they said still average $479 million. ”In quieter periods, this figure sits closer to $200 million. Until losses drop to the $200 million band, the onchain recovery is not fully confirmed.”
The gamma trap
Supporting this cautious outlook is a “gamma trap” identified in the derivatives market. Data from Glassnode shows nearly $2 billion in short gamma options positions clustered around the $82,000 strike price. As bitcoin trades within this zone, market makers are forced to hedge their positions, initially amplifying volatility and potentially “squeezing” the price toward $82,000, Bitfinex said in its note.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, noted that this gamma concentration creates a deceptive environment. “Dealer hedging can accelerate price toward that level, but once the squeeze exhausts itself, the same positioning can suppress momentum and act as resistance,” Fernandes told CoinDesk. “In other words, gamma is currently amplifying the move, not necessarily validating it.”
While onchain data shows improvement, the analyst said, “corporate buyers, by contrast, have gone quiet. Major players bought very little bitcoin last week, with an 80% drop in purchase volume compared with last month.”
A major red flag is waving
Fernandes points to the divergence between price and institutional flows as a major red flag. Despite the recovery, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $635 million outflow on May 13, the largest single-day exit since January.
Mati Greenspan, a market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, noted that the current “cost-basis battlefield” between $79,000 and $85,000 looks more like a transition zone than a ceiling.
Beyond technicals, the broader economic landscape remains a hurdle. On May 13, the U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair amidst rising 3.8% inflation. Fernandes noted that the market is now pricing in a “higher for longer” reality.
“Kevin Warsh has already set expectations that there is unlikely to be a rate cut this year—it’s possible there may even be a rate hike,” Fernandes said. “I just don’t see $BTC reaching a new ATH this year unless something radically changes geopolitically.”
Given the elevated realized losses and the lack of corporate support, which saw an 80% drop in purchase volume last week, Bitfinex analysts said they anticipate a quick jump to the $82,000 to $84,000 range, followed by a “period of neutralization.”
Fernandes concluded that the current structure looks like “incomplete capitulation.” Until the market can flush out the $479 million in daily realized losses and reclaim institutional conviction, the $85,000 level remains the cycle’s primary “fair-value battlefield.”
