Bitcoin (BTC) has entered an unusually quiet period as investors await the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election.
According to data from Bloomberg, the BTC price has fluctuated below 5% for 34 consecutive sessions, the longest such period of stability in a year. This period of stagnation has disappointed many in the crypto community, as October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, earning it the nickname “Uptober.”
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has only lost ground twice in October, averaging more than 20% for the month, compared with an average gain of 6% in all other months, according to Bloomberg data.
Analysts attribute the current calm to the lack of clear market catalysts, with attention primarily focused on the upcoming US presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump is an ardent supporter of cryptocurrencies, having launched his own decentralized finance project, World Liberty Financial. In contrast, the stance of his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, remains unclear. The Biden administration has maintained a tough regulatory approach to the crypto sector.
On Thursday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Cumberland DRW, the crypto division of Chicago-based trading firm DRW Holdings LLC, of operating as an unregistered securities dealer involving over $2 billion in digital assets. The action follows a series of SEC sanctions against major crypto companies, including Binance and Coinbase.
“We are waiting for the elections for the next big thing,” said Leo Mizuhara, CEO and founder of crypto asset manager Hashnote. “Many people think a Trump presidency will be positive for Bitcoin. Kamala’s situation is a bit more uncertain, with some believing she will follow the Democrats’ hostile stance, while others hope she will be more crypto and tech-friendly than her predecessor.”
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of crypto fund Split Capital, options traders are positioning themselves for higher volatility as the election approaches. “Most people in crypto are waiting to trade until there’s some kind of spot action,” Ebtikar said. “After seeing the SEC’s actions against Cumberland and other firms, many believe a Trump administration would be more supportive of the industry.”
Additionally, oversupply in the options market and increasing interest in other asset classes have made alternatives to spot crypto trading more attractive. “There has been a lot of oversupply in the options market, which has led to sellers holding on to their assets and suppressing volatility,” said Shiliang Tang, president of trading firm Arbelos Markets. “This, combined with uncertainty over the election and macroeconomic conditions, has led to a lackluster performance in crypto markets.”
Volatility could continue to decline amid the upcoming launch of options on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF and the growing adoption of Bitcoin, said Spencer Hallarn, global head of over-the-counter trading at crypto investment firm GSR. “As Bitcoin matures as an asset class, it is reasonable to expect realized volatility to decline,” he commented.
*This is not investment advice.
