The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its April interest rate decision tomorrow. Markets are pricing in a 100% chance that rates stay unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, making the actual decision almost a formality.
But the biggest catalyst is tomorrow’s Jerome Powell’s last speech and every word will carry extra weight.
Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady At 3.5% – 3.7%
Nobody on Wall Street or in the crypto space is seriously expecting a rate cut on 29th April.
Even according to CME FedWatch and prediction markets Polymarket, there is almost a 100% chance that rates remain unchanged after this meeting. If that happens, it would be the third straight pause in 2026.
And the reason is simple as the inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target.
As the latest CPI data showed the annual inflation rate jumping to 3.3% in March, the highest level since 2024, fueled by geopolitical instability and rising energy costs.
Even the job growth has slowed, but unemployment is still low, and growth remains positive.
Is This Powell’s Last Press Conference Ever?
Even if rates stay unchanged, what really matters tomorrow is Powell’s press conference, his comments on future rate cuts. Also, its jerome Powell’s last speech as his term as Fed Chair is ending on May 15, 2026.
Traders will closely watch three things:
- Does he hint at a future rate cut later this year?
- Is inflation still the main concern?
- Does he mention global tensions and oil prices?
Although earlier in his speech Powell said that his primary goal is to hand over the economy in “good shape” to the next Federal Reserve Chair. That suggests the Powell may stay cautious.
President Trump has already nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Powell once his term is up.
Will there be Any Rate Cut Coming in 2026?
Yes, there is still a chance of at least one Fed rate cut in 2026, but the odds have weakened significantly in recent weeks
Since the beginning of this 2026 there were odds of 2 to 3 rate cuts, but now it’s down to 0 or 1, that too dependent on inflation data.
Some major institutional giants like J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley still see one or two cuts later in 2026.
What This Means For Bitcoin and Crypto
Bitcoin rose after only 1 out of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, showing that expectations matter more than the actual decision. Even positive news from Powell’s speech can lead to a drop if it is already priced in.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $76,532 and testing a key range between $79,000 and $83,000. A breakout could push it toward $90,000.
If the Fed gives soft signals or inflation data comes lower, Bitcoin could move higher. But stronger data may cause a short-term dip.
