The broader market’s attention is shifting towards the anticipated release of the U.S. consumer price index report for September, but what does the market expect amid the CPI release?
Summary
- The market anticipates the US CPI data release on Friday, October 24, 2025.
- A government shutdown has led to overall economic data blackout, but economists project consumer prices rose 0.4% in September.
- Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut its interest rate at the next meeting.
It’s been weeks since federal agencies in the United States published key economic data, including the crucial consumer price index report. That’s because of the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. For more than three weeks, an economic data blackout remains in place as the shutdown drags.
However, that changes slightly with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ expected release of CPI data on Friday.
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What to expect from the US CPI report
When the U.S. shutdown began last month, the market reaction was muted as stocks and cryptocurrencies edged up nonetheless.
The expectation was that the partial shutdown would be brief. Sentiment dipped amid the dragging and equities led risk assets in paring gains. Gold, the safe haven asset, however, surged to a new all-time high above $4,400.
So what’s the outlook?
The September consumer price reading will, at the basic, offer a much needed view of inflation in the U.S.
Economists forecast US CPI data on Friday will show headline inflation increased at a faster-than-expected rate of 0.4% in September.
If this is the case, then the data will signal U.S. inflation up from 2.9% to 3.1%. That would be the fastest pace of month-on-month rise in over a year. Meanwhile, “core” inflation, which ignores the volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to have jumped to 3.1% in September, with this unchanged from the previous month.
Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent Nick Timiraos shared the details below via X:
For September, the median of 18 forecasts estimates a 0.30% rise in the core CPI (the low is 0.22%, and the high is 0.36%).
The median forecast has 0.39% rise in the headline CPI (the low is 0.32% and the high is 0.49%).
That would leave both the 12-month measures at 3.1%. pic.twitter.com/sHS4pnJrib
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 22, 2025
Experts say the investors will likely look past any signs of stubborn inflation in the US CPI report.
Stocks and cryptocurrencies are two market sectors to watch ahead of the rate cut.
Notably, investors expect the Federal Reserve to lower its interest rate next week, with markets having priced in a 25 basis point cut by central bank. Fed cut its interest rate by 0.25% at the last meeting.
What does it mean for crypto?
According to Nicolai Søndergaard, research analyst at onchain analytics firm Nansen, onchain data suggests there’s been minimal macro-driven positioning as investors weigh the upcoming data release.
He notes that smart money flows across the chains have remained subdued at around $300-400k daily, with this within anticipated ranges.
“Market participants appear largely indifferent to imminent CPI data based on onchain behavior,”Søndergaard said in market insights shared with crypto.news. “There’s no observable defensive stablecoin accumulation, leverage buildup, or exchange deposit activity typically associated with volatility expectations,” he added.
Following October’s crypto crash, the market structure seems to have reset. Onchain data signals an environment where traders are focused on yield generation rather than around speculative positioning.
“Traders seem to be in observation mode rather than making aggressive macro bets,” Søndergaard added.
Interestingly, Bitcoin (BTC) has corrected on previous CPI reports before swiftly recovering, and analysts see the trend continuing.
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