The US economy added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, nearly doubling the consensus forecast of roughly 65,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, exactly where economists expected it. Healthcare led the way with 28,000 new positions, followed by gains in retail and leisure. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% month-over-month, undershooting the 0.3% increase that had been projected.
Crypto markets felt the impact immediately
Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 within minutes of the release, then recovered to around $80,200 as traders recalibrated. Total liquidations over the 24-hour period surrounding the report exceeded $341 million. Options expirations in Bitcoin and Ethereum were projected to exceed $2 billion, adding another layer of volatility to an already jittery session.
What the Fed is watching
The headline number of 115,000 jobs screams resilience, and probabilities for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts declined after the data hit. But a 0.2% monthly gain in average hourly earnings, below the 0.3% consensus, suggests that the labor market’s tightness isn’t translating into runaway wage inflation.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 16 came in at 207,000, below the expected 215,000. Consumer sentiment, meanwhile, declined, and inflation expectations eased.
What this means for investors
Higher Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar are the typical byproducts of better-than-expected employment data, and both historically act as headwinds for digital assets. The $341 million in liquidations is evidence that this reallocation happens fast and without much warning.
The wage growth miss introduces a counterargument: if inflation expectations continue to moderate, as consumer surveys suggest they are, the Fed could still find room to cut later in the year even with a healthy labor market. Ongoing tensions around the Iran situation have been injecting uncertainty into risk asset pricing, adding a further wildcard to the outlook.
