President Donald Trump intends to put US arms sales to Taiwan on the table during an upcoming summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. That single agenda item has sent a chill through Taiwan’s diplomatic supporters and defense hawks in Washington alike.
The reason is straightforward: the US has historically treated its arms sales to Taiwan as a bilateral matter between Washington and Taipei. Bringing Beijing into that conversation, even informally, would represent a meaningful departure from a policy framework that has held since 1982.
A $14 billion package in limbo
Congress recently greenlit a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. But that package isn’t moving anywhere yet. It requires a formal notification from Trump to Congress before it can advance, and that notification hasn’t come.
Trump’s own words frame the dynamic clearly. He acknowledged that “President Xi would like us not to,” referring to China’s well-documented opposition to any US military support for Taiwan.
US presidents have sold weapons to Taiwan for decades under the Taiwan Relations Act. The 1982 Six Assurances, delivered by the Reagan administration, explicitly stated that the US would not consult with Beijing before making arms sale decisions regarding Taiwan. That commitment has been a pillar of the US-Taiwan relationship for over four decades.
Beijing’s warning shot
Xi Jinping has warned that tensions surrounding Taiwan could push the US-China relationship into an “extremely dangerous place.”
For Xi, getting a seat at the table on arms sale discussions would be a significant diplomatic win, even if no formal concessions result. The symbolism alone, Washington consulting Beijing on whether and how to arm Taiwan, would reshape perceptions across the Indo-Pacific region about American commitment to Taiwan’s defense.
The $14 billion arms package is the most immediate thing to watch. If Trump transmits the formal notification to Congress, it signals that the discussion with Xi didn’t result in any pullback. If the package continues to sit in bureaucratic limbo after the summit, that silence will speak volumes about what was agreed to behind closed doors.
