Amid rising bearish sentiment for Bitcoin ($BTC) following its recent rejection near $82,000, trading expert Ali Martinez has outlined key midterm targets to consider.
On May 20, Martinez stated that Bitcoin price could rally towards $94,849 in the near term if it holds above the support level around $72,962, based on the analytics from Glassnode’s MVRV Ratio (Market Value / Realized Value). Notably, the $94,849 $BTC price target coincides with the all-time historical average MVRV, while the support level around $72,962 aligns with the 0.5 standard deviation below the mean.
However, if Bitcoin price fails to rebound from the support level around $72,962 in the near future, Martinez argued that a drop toward the realized price around $54,270 could be inevitable. The analyst cautioned traders that a breach of the support level around $72,962 could confirm a further free fall for $BTC, potentially hitting a new lower low before a possible rebound towards new highs later in 2026.
Key factors that could determine Bitcoin price outlook
With Bitcoin’s price hovering at a crucial crossroads, as indicated by the MVRV ratio, its near-term outlook could hinge on potential fundamental catalysts. For instance, the flagship coin has closely mirrored the performance of United States spot $BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), especially BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), as Finbold noted.
As such, if the institutional spot demand for $BTC wanes, amid heightened short bets in the leveraged market, further capitulation towards $54,270 could be imminent. However, if the institutional demand for Bitcoin, especially in the United States, gets renewed, potentially catalyzed by the anticipated passage of the Clarity Act – a proposed federal regulation aimed at legalizing crypto assets – a rally beyond $82,000 could be bolstered.
Already, the total Bitcoin inflows to all crypto exchanges have surged by more than 72,000 $BTC over the past two days, according to metrics from CryptoQuant. Historically, an increase in exchange inflow has been a signal of bearish sentiment and vice versa.
