The United States’ long-awaited crypto market structure legislation is approaching another critical stage, but Wall Street analysts believe the path to approval remains uncertain despite growing momentum in Congress.
Notably, TD Cowen expects the Senate to begin formal consideration of the Clarity Act in July. Even so, the investment bank says political disagreements, regulatory concerns, and competing legislative priorities continue to cast doubt over whether lawmakers can approve the bill before the November midterm elections.
TD Cowen Sees Difficult Road Ahead for Clarity Act
According to TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to begin the procedural process for the Clarity Act during the week of July 13. That timeline could allow a Senate floor vote later that month if lawmakers remain on schedule.
However, managing director Jaret Seiberg cautioned that approval remains “far from assured.” The firm identified July 24 as an important deadline before the House begins its August recess. If lawmakers fail to advance the legislation before then, Seiberg questioned whether Congress would have enough time and political appetite to revisit the measure before campaigning intensifies ahead of the midterm election.
One source of uncertainty centers on President Donald Trump’s position. According to TD Cowen, Democrats are expected to introduce politically sensitive amendments during Senate debate. Republicans may hesitate to proceed unless they are confident the president would ultimately sign the legislation.
The report noted that uncertainty increased after Trump recently declined to approve a housing bill negotiated by his own administration and reiterated that other legislative priorities remain ahead of several pending measures.
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Ethics Debate and Banking Opposition Persist
Democrats continue pushing proposals that would prohibit government officials and their immediate families from owning cryptocurrency businesses, a restriction that would also apply to the president. TD Cowen questioned whether moderate Republican senators would unanimously reject such amendments if they reach the Senate floor.
Meanwhile, officials continue discussing whether software developers should face legal responsibility when decentralized tools they create are later used for illicit financial activity.
Those discussions intensified after several law enforcement organizations urged the White House to reconsider Section 604 of the Clarity Act, arguing that protections for non-custodial developers could weaken oversight and complicate criminal investigations.
At the same time, TD Cowen does not expect lawmakers to revise the bill’s stablecoin yield provisions, leaving traditional banks opposed to key parts of the legislation.
The firm’s cautious outlook aligns with recent assessments from other financial institutions. Galaxy Research recently reduced its estimate of the bill becoming law this year to 50%, while JPMorgan analysts also placed the probability below 50%, pointing to Senate scheduling constraints, continued debate over stablecoin rules, and unresolved political divisions that could delay final approval.
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