Bitcoin may be trading above what some investors expected this year, but according to Charles Schwab’s Head of Crypto Research, Jim Ferraioli, its “fair value” could actually be closer to $95,000.
Ferraioli said his valuation is based primarily on Bitcoin’s mining economics, rather than short-term market sentiment.
Why $95,000?
“If you were to say what’s the fair value for Bitcoin at these levels, I think it’s probably about $95,000.” He said.
He explained that the most efficient Bitcoin miners currently produce BTC at a cost of around $60,000, while less efficient miners are closer to $95,000. Drawing a comparison with traditional commodity markets, Ferraioli said that producers generally operate on relatively thin margins, making production costs a useful benchmark for estimating fair value.
Notably, the lower mining-cost estimate of around $60,000 represents a potential fundamental support zone. This level also lines up with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has recently been around the $60,000–$62,000 range.
He also clarified that the figure isn’t a price target, but rather a valuation based on the economics of Bitcoin production.
Seasonal Weakness Still in Play
Ferraioli pointed out that the crypto market is currently in a seasonally weaker period, often referred to as “Bitcoin winter.” However, he added that risk assets have historically performed better toward the end of the year, leaving room for a potential year-end rally if market conditions improve.
What Could Drive the Next Move?
While Ferraioli said it’s impossible to predict whether Bitcoin will reach $95,000 in the next six months, he said several catalysts that could support higher prices.
“It doesn’t take a lot of flows to move the needle on Bitcoin. This is a supply-constrained asset.” He said.
He says that Bitcoin rallied rapidly from around $60,000 to $83,000 earlier this year, showing how quickly prices can move when demand increases.
Looking ahead, he said the biggest drivers include greater regulatory clarity, particularly if U.S. crypto legislation advances, along with a renewed wave of institutional adoption. Sustained institutional inflows, combined with Bitcoin’s limited supply, could provide the momentum needed for another leg higher.
For now, Ferraioli sees Bitcoin’s mining costs as offering a practical framework for valuing the asset, while acknowledging that market sentiment, regulation, and institutional demand will ultimately determine whether prices move closer to that $95,000 level.
