Attorney Jeremy Hogan speculates that a settlement in the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit is more likely to happen before XRP ETFs are approved.
The prominent legal expert made this known yesterday in response to an inquiry from an XRP community member. In an X post, the user asked Attorney Hogan whether the SEC would approve at least one of the multiple XRP ETF filings before settling or dismissing its lawsuit against Ripple.
Attorney Hogan Responds
Responding, the lawyer clarified that the SEC would likely settle or dismiss the Ripple case before approving any XRP ETFs. This is because XRP is embroiled in regulatory uncertainty, which makes ETF approval less likely.
In a follow-up tweet, Hogan emphasized that the ongoing SEC v. Ripple lawsuit does not have anything that will legally impact the approval of an XRP ETF.
Attorney Hogan stated that the court’s ruling that XRP is not a security is the only key factor for ETF approval. Furthermore, he indicated that the remaining issue in the lawsuit relates to Ripple’s XRP sales on exchanges.
Not because it has to happen in that order, but because the ETFs will just take longer to dot the i’s and cross the t’s.
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) February 10, 2025
SEC v. Ripple Lawsuit
While the SEC initially claimed that Ripple violated securities laws by selling XRP to retail and institutional investors without obtaining registration, a New York federal judge ruled otherwise.
Judge Analisa Torres held that Ripple’s XRP sales to retail investors and other distributions were not investment contracts. However, she characterized those made to institutional clients as securities.
Under its previous leadership, the SEC appealed the ruling in the second circuit and has already filed its opening brief. Ripple is expected to file its response on April 16, 2025.
Ripple Lawsuit Triggers Concern Among XRP Community Members
With the case still ongoing, several XRP enthusiasts are concerned about whether it could affect the coin’s ETF approval.
For context, several prospective issuers, including WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, CoinShares, and Grayscale, have submitted S-1 documents to the SEC to launch XRP ETFs in the U.S.
Additionally, top exchanges, including Nasdaq and Cboe, have also submitted 19b-4 applications to list and trade shares of these ETFs.
Bloomberg Analysts Put XRP ETF Approval Odds in 2025 At 65%
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have projected a 65% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved this year.
Notably, XRP’s approval odds are lower than those of Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Solana, which Balchunas sets at 90%, 75%, and 70%, respectively.
NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We’re putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.
Here’s the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
Per the analysis, the SEC has not acknowledged any of the 19b-4 applications for XRP ETFs. He also noted that the securities regulator does not consider XRP a commodity, drastically reducing its chance of ETF approval.
In a follow-up tweet, Seyffart speculates that the SEC and its Crypto Task Force, led by Commissioner Peirce, could untangle some of the security vs. commodity implications from lawsuits this year. If this happens, it could potentially bolster XRP ETF approval odds.
