Yesterday both the Bitcoin price and the forecasts on its price have become positive.
Indeed, the market value of BTC has returned above $70,000, something that had not happened since before the halving on April 20th.
The jump in the quotation and the new forecasts on the price of Bitcoin
Yesterday morning the price of Bitcoin was around $67,000.
It was a level absolutely in line with that of the previous two days, but during the day some decidedly promising positive signals appeared.
Indeed at a certain point it started to rise, bringing itself above the 68,000$.
This was already a level beyond which the price of Bitcoin had not returned since April 13, i.e. since the pre-halving drop that anticipated the sell-the-news following the event.
At that point it already seemed clear that the post-halving sideways movement was about to end, and during the day things actually went even better.
The news about ETFs
Yesterday evening a news was published that made BTC price jump even further, and especially that of Ethereum.
The news is that, according to Bloomberg experts, the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs by the SEC would go from unlikely to probable.
Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they’d be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024
At that point, the price of ETH suddenly jumped from $3,150 to $3,440, and during the night it even pushed above $3,600.
It is levels that Ethereum had not seen since April 9, even though they are almost 10% lower than the annual highs of 2024, and 25% lower than the historical highs.
This bullish trend immediately had an impact on the entire crypto market, including Bitcoin.
And so the price of BTC first rose above $70,000, and then also above $71,000.
Currently BTC is only 3% away from the historical highs of March.
The forecasts on the new quotation of Bitcoin
With the publication of this news, short-term forecasts have also changed.
Before, it was imagined that the price of BTC this week could interrupt the sideways phase that started in mid-April, but not that it could immediately return to the highs.
At this moment, however, short-term forecasts have become more optimistic, and it is not excluded that by the end of the week it may manage to rise above $73,000.
However, on Thursday the SEC could also reject the first requests for the issuance of Ethereum spot ETFs, despite the enthusiasms, and this could sweep away much of this short-term optimism.
Indeed it is not yet entirely clear whether the behavior of the SEC really means that on Thursday it will approve the Ethereum spot ETFs.
The medium term
Things instead change in the medium term, because paradoxically there is less uncertainty.
On the short term the uncertainty is high, precisely because of the SEC’s behavior that is hard to decipher.
Instead, on the medium term, the bullish trend seems to continue to prevail, after the pause that started just before the halving and ended yesterday.
It should be noted, however, that in case of rejection of the ETFs there could also be a new retracement, so the medium-term trend could undergo a new temporary halt.
The fact is that, at least until the US elections on November 5th, there will be enough liquidity in the financial markets to allow a variety of risk-on assets to appreciate further.
This trend could last until the beginning of November, and could be divided into two phases, one until June or July, and a second one from September onwards.
The long term
On the long term instead the uncertainty rises.
The key point is whether the bullrun of 2024, which should not have ended yet, will continue in 2025, or if next year there will be the classic bear-market post-bubble.
A lot will depend on US monetary policies, also because after the elections on November 5th these could change.
In particular, the financial policies of the US government could change, which this year has contributed to spreading optimism in the financial markets.
It is not at all certain that such policies will continue, and indeed there may be a greater likelihood that they will end with the elections.
On the other hand, the Fed could start cutting rates, either in November or perhaps already in September. This change in monetary policy, combined with the reduction of QT (Quantitative Tightening) starting in June, could instead increase liquidity in the markets, so everything will depend on which dynamics will prevail.
At this moment it is already difficult to try to imagine what could realistically happen in the short term, so as far as the long term is concerned the uncertainty is still almost total.
For now the only thing that seems to be certain is that, currently, the medium-term trend continues to appear positive.
However, it should not be forgotten that unexpected events can always occur that can invalidate any forecast, so nothing is certain.
