Bitcoin investors from the post-ETF launch era are proving to be poor HODLers, as the asset’s so-called “sideways summer” is driving them out of the market.
As the leading cryptocurrency’s price fell back to $58,000 on Thursday, on-chain data showed that much of the latest selloff came from investors that first entered the market this year.
“Approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin aged between three and six months moved on the network during the drop,” wrote CryptoQuant author Cauê Oliveira on Thursday, highlighting massive spikes in activity in the last couple of days.
Beginner investors are capitulating and increasing selling pressure
“Approximately $2.4 billion worth of #Bitcoin aged between 3 and 6 months moved on the network during the drop.” – By @caueconomy
Read more 👇https://t.co/W46LKwg9Hb pic.twitter.com/C3OzfIMbSo
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 4, 2024
The metric bolsters a prevailing theory among on-chain analysts that coins that have changed wallets within the previous few months are more likely to move amid price volatility than those held for five months or longer.
“These entities can be classified as ‘long-term’ holders, but they are possibly behaving like short-term investors, since they entered at the beginning of the year,” Oliveira explained.
Such buyers, he continued, likely bought into the hype surrounding the Bitcoin spot ETFs that launched in January. After absorbing over $13 billion of net inflows during their first two months on the market, the performance of those funds has since been mostly flat—as has Bitcoin’s price.
By contrast, Oliveira noted that entities “older than one year” haven’t shown signs of heavy selling yet, proving they’ve got more mettle for dealing with the downturn.
According to LookIntoBitcoin, Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price currently sits at $64,614—roughly 10% over the current market price. This represents the average price at which most recent market entrants bought in, and provides a rough estimate for when those new Bitcoin buyers might start to panic sell.
Bitcoin initially lost this price support in mid-June, at which time CryptoQuant predicted BTC could slide another 8% down to $60,000—which proved correct.
Despite sideways trading and worrisome volatility since March, Bitcoin is yet to retract more than 20% from its all-time high at $73,400, proving remarkably steady compared to previous cyclical bull markets. Still, given the recent panic selling, another CryptoQuant author believes the asset’s next line of support could be much lower than where it is now.
“The $47,000 level is 25% below the average purchase price for [short-term holders]— this will be a good resistance point and a shakeout for new buyers,” wrote CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr. on Twitter on Thursday. “Previous organic corrections in the bull market lasted between 110 to 60 days.”
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
