Mike Ippolito: 2025’s crypto paradox, Ethereum’s future dominance, and the rise of real-world assets

Key takeaways

• The crypto market in 2025 was a paradox, being both the best and worst year, reflecting mixed investor sentiments.
• A predictable maturity curve is emerging in the crypto market, indicating a shift towards rationality.
• Cognitive dissonance is prevalent as the market becomes more rational, despite declining prices.
• The transition from speculative to fundamental valuation methodologies will continue into 2026.
• Many good projects in crypto are mispriced, leading to investor confusion.
• Recent all-time highs of Ethereum and Solana do not signify a meaningful bull market.
• The lack of new entrants in crypto affects market expectations and sentiment.
• The crypto market resembles the early 2000s internet boom, characterized by over-optimism and infrastructure build-out.
• Consolidation will be a key trend in the crypto industry, with survival being a critical strategy.
• Builders should focus on getting acquired or consolidating within their category.
• Ethereum’s layer one protocol is expected to capture significant growth by 2026.
• Advancements in zkEVM technology are ahead of schedule, enhancing Ethereum’s block speeds.
• The current market environment is focused on building for future growth rather than immediate profits.
• The convergence of equity markets and crypto will lead to innovations like equity perps by 2026.
• Investor relations will demand standardized financial disclosures and adopt community-focused strategies.

Guest intro

Mike Ippolito is a prominent figure in the crypto industry, featured on Bankless. Known for his insightful analysis, Mike offers a nuanced perspective on the evolving landscape of digital assets. His expertise spans market dynamics, valuation methodologies, and the strategic direction of crypto projects. In this episode, Mike delves into the challenges and opportunities facing the crypto market, drawing parallels to historical trends and forecasting future developments.

2025: The best worst year for crypto

• 2025 was the best worst year ever in my opinion

  — Mike Ippolito

• The year was marked by mixed market conditions and investor sentiment.
• Despite disappointments, the year highlighted both positive and negative aspects.
• The crypto market is starting to follow a predictable maturity curve.

• I think that it’s finally this is a market that’s starting to follow a very predictable curve around maturity

  — Mike Ippolito

• Cognitive dissonance is prevalent as the market becomes more rational.

• A regulated route is emerging… but the price has still gone down

  — Mike Ippolito

• The market’s rationality contrasts with declining prices, challenging investor psychology.

Transitioning valuation methodologies

• The shift from speculative to fundamental valuation methodologies is ongoing.

• That is probably going to be a theme that extends into 2026

  — GuestName

• Many good projects are mispriced, confusing investors.

• They’ve just been really mispriced and so I think that’s gonna continue to confuse people

  — GuestName

• Recent all-time highs of Ethereum and Solana are not indicative of a bull market.

• While technically true it’s not really meaningfully true

  — GuestName

• The lack of new entrants affects market expectations and sentiment.

• There is a lack of a class of 2025 crypto… all of the people in crypto are in crypto for three plus years

  — GuestName

Parallels to the early 2000s internet boom

• The current crypto market resembles the early 2000s internet boom.

• We are in the equivalent of late two thousand one early two thousand two for web two

  — GuestName

• Over-optimism and infrastructure build-out characterize the market.
• The next few years will see a trend of consolidation in the industry.

• Surviving is winning over the next three years

  — GuestName

• Builders should focus on getting acquired or consolidating within their category.

• Your strategy as a builder is either to get acquired or to win and consolidate in your category

  — GuestName

Ethereum’s future positioning

• Ethereum’s layer one protocol is expected to be well-positioned for growth by 2026.

• By the 2026 the ethereum layer one protocol will have positioned itself more appropriately

  — GuestName

• Advancements in zkEVM technology are ahead of schedule.

• ZkEVMs… delivered way faster than expected

  — GuestName

• The current market environment is focused on building for future growth.

• We’re in a little bit of a post bubble era and now it’s about reorienting ourselves

  — GuestName

Opportunities in the current market

• The current market conditions present significant opportunities for committed builders.

• We’re finally entering an environment where you can build real sustainable equity value

  — GuestName

• Historical patterns show that sticking through downturns can lead to significant opportunities.

• If you can just make it through the grind then you are positioned

  — GuestName

• By 2026, the industry will validate or invalidate many long-held ideas.

• We’re gonna see a lot of that decided in 2026

  — GuestName

Convergence of equity markets and crypto

• 2026 will see a convergence of equity markets and crypto.

• We’re gonna get things like equity perps in 2026

  — GuestName

• Investor relations will demand standardized disclosures and community-focused strategies.

• Investor relations will become increasingly important

  — GuestName

• Launching a publicly traded instrument creates dual responsibilities for founders.

• You have your product and your business and then you have your instrument

  — GuestName

The evolving landscape of investor relations

• Crypto companies will adopt social media for investor relations.

• Crypto is going to look to equities to borrow certain principles

  — GuestName

• Companies like Coinbase and Robinhood are rethinking product announcements.

• They’re going directly to their audience about what they think they’re excited about

  — GuestName

• Discussions around GAAP accounting standards will be significant.

• There’s gonna be a bunch of noise around gaap accounting standards this year

  — GuestName

Challenges in accounting standards

• There needs to be an accepted set of standards for accounting in crypto.

• There just needs to be an accepted set of standards

  — GuestName

• Significant changes in GAAP accounting are unlikely due to the overhead involved.

• The lift is too big on that

  — GuestName

• Most dual token equity structures are not feasible.

• In 90% of these cases it’s simply not feasible

  — GuestName

Dual equity and token structures

• A negative stigma may develop around protocols with dual equity and token structures.

• Potentially a negative stigma develop around protocols that have a dual equity and token structure

  — GuestName

• The presence of only one instrument may attract potential investors.

• The fact that there is only one instrument… might be interesting to potential investors

  — GuestName

• Investors may become less interested in tokens with inaccessible equity components.

• Investors are in even interested in buying tokens that have equity components that they don’t have access to

  — GuestName

Revenue meta discussions

• Revenue meta discussions will shift towards valuing durability and quality.

• The revenue meta discussions will evolve towards durability and quality

  — Mike Abledo

• Not all revenue is created equal, impacting company evaluations.

• Not all revenue is created equal

  — Mike Abledo

• Investors will stop giving credit to highly pro-cyclical revenue.

• Investors are going to stop giving highly pro cyclical revenue credit

  — GuestName

The impact of quantum computing

• Quantum computing poses a future threat to Bitcoin, but not until around 2032.

• The first year that like a production quantum computer will become relevant… is gonna be around 2032

  — GuestName

• The Bitcoin community is resistant to discussions about quantum threats.

• First met with an ample amount of resistance from a lot of the bitcoin core developers

  — GuestName

• The quantum threat will become a significant topic of discussion by the early 2030s.

• Quantum isn’t just a crypto issue it is going to impact all of society

  — GuestName

Ethereum’s resilience and future

• Ethereum has emerged victorious despite past mistakes and uncertainty.

• Ethereum got a lot wrong in the last couple of years but still emerged victorious

  — GuestName

• Ethereum’s main chain is expected to perform extremely well in the coming years.

• I am extremely bullish on ethereum over the course of the next couple years

  — GuestName

• The messaging around building on L1 versus L2 has caused confusion among developers.

• The messaging has switched around a lot it’s just been a lot of uncertainty and confusion

  — GuestName

The rise of real-world assets

• 2026 will see significant growth in real-world asset looping on blockchains.

• One thing that’s gonna take off in 2026 is rwa looping

  — GuestName

• Bringing real-world assets on-chain presents unique challenges.

• There are a lot of challenges with bringing rwas on chain

  — GuestName

• 2024 will be a phenomenal year for DeFi, driven by real-world asset inflows.

• It’s gonna be a really good year driven by rwa inflows

  — GuestName

The future of vaults and credit funds

• Vaults will likely grow from $5 billion to around $15 billion in assets by the end of next year.

• Vaults appreciate a lot but probably don’t go parabolic

  — GuestName

• The modular infrastructure of Morpho is the right foundation for vaults.

• The modular infrastructure of morpho that morpho kind of pioneered here was the right infrastructure

  — GuestName

• The demand for yield from stablecoins moving on-chain is driving the growth of credit funds.

• A lot of vcs that are struggling will launch credit funds this coming year

  — GuestName