In late 2025, the banking giant JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) was responsible for the street-high S&P 500 forecast for 2026 of 8,000 points, but it has, in more recent months, engaged in multiple target downgrades.
Specifically, after first dropping the estimate to 7,500, the company again lowered the prediction to 7,200 in late March. Thus, instead of the originally anticipated 16.65% rise in 2026 from 6,858 to 8,000, a 5% rise is expected.
Simultaneously, while JPMorgan apparently still estimates that the benchmark stock market index will end the year in the green, it also warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East is likely to continue generating volatility.
The banking giant, therefore, warned that the S&P 500 might first fall 7.78% from its latest close of 6,506 to 6,000 before eventually rebounding.
S&P 500 futures whipsaw on Monday morning
Elsewhere, performance on Friday, March 20, and futures trading early on March 23, originally hinted that the predicted plunge to 6,000 might come sooner rather than later, amidst escalating attacks in the Middle East and President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
By press time on Monday morning, however, the commander-in-chief’s social media post that ‘productive talks’ have led to an effective abandonment of the 48-hour ultimatum caused substantial turmoil in the futures markets.
Indeed, while oil suffered a deep plunge on the news, most other assets, including the S&P 500 benchmark stock market index futures, have soared.
Why the S&P 500 rally might not last
Though the claim might appear, at face value, to have invalidated JPMorgan’s dire short-term forecast, it is worth noting that there is a possibility the President is not being truthful.
As a reminder, when fossil fuel prices began skyrocketing toward $120 per barrel ahead of the second Monday of the conflict, the commander-in-chief claimed victory and an imminent end to hostilities, only for the war to continue for weeks.
For what it is worth, Iran has repeatedly claimed it is not interested in negotiating with the U.S., partially due to getting attacked twice in less than 12 months amidst negotiations – a fact that is itself reason to remain cautious even if talks of a ceasefire are confirmed.
Featured image via Shutterstock
