USD/JPY Has Already Given Yen Shorts a Serious Problem
The yen was trading around 160 to the dollar in early September, after hitting nearly 164 in July. Since then, it’s strengthened to about 153, up about 4% this month and more than 6% from its July low.
This doesn’t mean the yen has suddenly become fundamentally strong. Instead, a few things are hitting yen short sellers at the same time.
After the yen hit a 40-year low, Japan and the US carried out a rare coordinated intervention over the summer, during which Japan subsequently spent approximately $96.4 billion in defense of its currency.
Meanwhile, markets are growing more confident that the BOJ will raise rates by another 0.25% at its September 18 meeting.
Is Bessent Trying to Force Yen Shorts to Capitulate?
It’s hard to say what Bessent’s intentions are currently, but his comments carry weight because they change the potential payoff of the trade.
A trader betting against the yen isn’t just wagering on Japan’s economy or the US-Japan rate gap anymore. They’re also betting that policymakers won’t step in again or push policy in a direction that strengthens the yen.
Considering Japan’s intervention and Bessent’s remarks, this practically adds a fresh layer of policy risk to betting against the yen.
However, the biggest risk is likely the carry trade.
The yen has long been used as a cheap source of funding because Japanese rates have been rather low. Investors could borrow yen, swap it for other currencies, and put that money into higher-yielding assets.
But when the yen jumps quickly, those trades become less attractive. Investors may be forced to buy yen to pay back what they borrowed, which could push the yen even higher.
What Gets Hit If USD/JPY Breaks Below 153?
If the yen rallies more, investors who borrowed cheap yen to fund their positions might have to start closing them out.
The first place to feel the squeeze could be overvalued US tech and AI stocks, where heavy positioning and leverage could make forced selling worse. MarketWatch notes that the tech sector is particularly vulnerable because many investors have used the carry trade to get into higher-return assets.
Crypto could be just as vulnerable for the same reason.
Still, the trap would be assuming the yen must be fundamentally strong for USD/JPY to continue falling.
If traders think the BOJ is about to tighten policy, Japanese investors are bringing capital back home, and the US and Japan are ready to intervene again, shorting the yen can become a lot more expensive to hold.
That sets up a market where short-term positioning and policy can overpower the usual fundamental arguments, which might be exactly what Bessent is warning about.
As such, the classic retail mistake would be looking at USD/JPY near 153 after a sharp fall and assuming it’s bound to bounce back.
Related: Japan Yen Intervention Raises Pressure on U.S. Treasuries and Risk Assets
