This creates an important contrast with the current late-2026 setup. While Bitcoin has historically experienced periods of weakness and volatility around election cycles, the longer-term price action shown in the chart suggests that these periods have not necessarily marked the end of a Bitcoin bull cycle. For the current market, the key question is whether a potential pre-election correction would simply become another consolidation phase before the next major move higher.
Bitcoin Has Posted Negative Q4 Returns in Every Previous Midterm Year
Bitcoin’s historical Q4 performance adds another layer to the midterm-elections thesis. The Coinglass chart shows that the star token ended the fourth quarter lower in each of the three previous US midterm years.
The declines were significant but varied widely. Bitcoin fell 16.70% in Q4 2014, dropped 42.16% in Q4 2018, and declined 14.75% in Q4 2022. With $BTC entering its final quarter, the historical record gives traders another reason to watch the price closely. If $BTC begins to lose key support levels while broader market conditions deteriorate, the previous midterm-year pattern could become increasingly relevant.
Bitcoin Remains Above Key Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
Bitcoin is currently trading above the short-term holder cost basis, with the chart showing $BTC at around $84,276, compared with a short-term holder cost basis near $73,000. The Glassnode-based chart shows how this cost basis has tracked Bitcoin’s broader price cycle, acting as an important reference during both rallies and corrections.
The current gap gives Bitcoin some room before the market reaches the level where recent buyers could come under greater pressure. If $BTC extends its pullback, the $73,000 area could become an important test for the current market structure. Holding above it would keep the broder recovery intact, while a sustained move below could signal that selling pressure is becoming more significant as the US midterm elections approach.
What’s Next for the Bitcoin ($BTC) Price Rally?
Bitcoin enters the final quarter of 2026 with a mixed setup. $BTC remains above its $73,000 short-term holder cost basis, while recent price action shows signs of cooling after the recovery toward $87,400. At the same time, Bitcoin’s historical performance during previous US midterm years provides a reason for caution, with Q4 losses recorded in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
The pattern does not mean the elections will trigger a $BTC price plunge; however, it becomes more relevant if $BTC starts losing key support while liquidity and institutional demand weaken. For now, the reaction around the $84,000 to $85,000 region, followed by the $73,000 cost-basis level, could offer a clearer indication of whether $BTC price is simply experiencing another correction or entering a more sustained period of weakness.
