Fed Policy, CLARITY Act, and Strategy Shape Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitcoin’s move below $60,000 has renewed debate over whether the market is nearing exhaustion or facing another leg lower. The decline follows a peak near $125,000 in October, with Grayscale Research noting June 26 that bitcoin is now down more than 50%.
The pullback has been driven in part by a changed interest-rate backdrop. Grayscale said expectations shifted after President Donald Trump selected Kevin Warsh, seen as more hawkish, over Kevin Hassett. With Warsh now leading the Federal Reserve and inflation still elevated, markets have moved toward the possibility of rate hikes.
Zach Pandl, Grayscale Head of Research, stated:
“We see two ways out of the Bitcoin bear market.”
Regulation remains a key offset for the market, with Grayscale pointing to recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approval of the first perpetual futures products for U.S. markets. The firm also highlighted stablecoin growth and tokenized assets as signs that blockchain adoption is continuing beneath the short-term price weakness.
Institutional Adoption Continues Despite Short-Term Crypto Market Strain
At the same time, several risks weigh on sentiment. Grayscale cited uncertainty over the CLARITY Act, concerns about Strategy’s leveraged balance sheet, and investor unease around quantum-computing security. The firm also noted gold’s sharp pullback, suggesting bitcoin’s decline reflects a broader repricing of assets tied to fiat debasement concerns.
Pandl described:
“Whether bitcoin’s price has reached its cyclical low point depends on upcoming catalysts, including Fed rate decisions and progress on the CLARITY Act in the US Senate.”
Grayscale’s base case hinges on Senate progress on the CLARITY Act, balance-sheet action from Strategy, and no additional Fed rate hikes. If those conditions hold, the firm said bitcoin may already be near its cycle bottom.
The longer-term case centers on adoption. Grayscale said public blockchains continue to benefit from institutional use, stablecoin growth, tokenization, and broader trends supporting alternatives to traditional financial infrastructure.
“The current bear market offers a compelling opportunity for investors with longer term horizons to position for structural growth in public blockchain technology and digital asset valuations over the coming decade,” Grayscale said, concluding:
“Grayscale Research remains incredibly optimistic about the medium- and long-term outlook for the crypto asset class. It was the best performing asset class over the last ten years, and we think it will be again over the next ten years.”
