Prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are in discussions with Galaxy Digital as institutional interest begins shifting toward event-driven trading.
Summary
- Galaxy Digital is in talks to act as a market maker on Polymarket and Kalshi as institutional firms examine the growing event-trading sector.
- Prediction-market volume and valuations have surged, supported by Google Search integration, new funding rounds, and major trading firms joining.
- Regulatory steps, including Polymarket’s QCEX acquisition and Kalshi’s CFTC approvals, have opened the door to broader U.S. participation.
Galaxy Digital is in discussions to provide liquidity on Polymarket and Kalshi as prediction markets draw new attention from major trading firms.
According to a Nov. 24 Bloomberg report, the firm has held talks with both exchanges about supplying regular two-way quotes that help improve trading depth.
Galaxy’s move into prediction markets
Galaxy Digital, long focused on institutional crypto services, is exploring a market-making role that would place it alongside a small group of Wall Street-linked players entering the event-trading space.
Galaxy Digital chief executive officer Mike Novogratz said the company aims to act as a consistent counterparty on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which operate peer-to-peer markets rather than sportsbook-style setups.
Prediction markets have surged this year as users trade binary contracts tied to politics, sports, economic data, and cultural outcomes. Platforms rely heavily on liquidity providers to keep spreads tight, as every “yes” purchase requires someone else to take the “no” side.
Historically, these markets were too small to attract large trading firms. Susquehanna International Group was one of the few to publicly confirm activity on Kalshi.
But that is changing. Jump Trading recently started market making on Kalshi, and AQR’s Cliff Asness said the firm is reviewing a sports-betting expansion. Kalshi also operates its own internal market-making desk to meet order flow during high-traffic windows.
Why prediction markets are drawing major capital
Polymarket and Kalshi now account for roughly 97% of global prediction-market volume, fueled by both regulatory progress and new institutional interest. Kalshi recently closed a $1 billion round at an $11 billion valuation, led by Sequoia and CapitalG, as it broadens listings and moves into consumer markets including sports.
Polymarket is preparing a new raise that could value the company between $12–15 billion, following a prior $9 billion level supported by its $2 billion strategic investment from ICE, the parent of the NYSE.
The sector saw unprecedented activity during the 2024 U.S. election cycle, with Polymarket clearing more than $3.5 billion, a figure that surpassed major sportsbooks.
Momentum accelerated again after Google announced on Nov. 7 that it will surface real-time odds from Polymarket and Kalshi inside Google Search and Google Finance, bringing crowd-driven forecasts to millions of mainstream users.
Regulatory steps have also helped. Polymarket’s $112 million purchase of CFTC-licensed QCEX earlier this year reopened access to U.S. users and resolved a DOJ inquiry. Kalshi, already a CFTC-designated contract market, won key court approvals for election-based contracts and now plans to expand into event categories that could rival sectors of traditional finance.
Galaxy’s talks indicate that prediction markets are entering a phase where top-tier market makers may play a central role in scaling liquidity across political, economic, and entertainment outcomes.
