The S&P 500 has gained 142% from May 2024 to June 2026. However, when AI stocks are striped out, that figure collapses to 16%. The rest of the market, hundreds of companies across dozens of sectors, contributed almost nothing to one of the biggest bull runs in modern history.
Five stocks alone have accounted for roughly 50% of all S&P 500 gains since April 1. The index added $10 trillion in market cap in just 29 days. Semiconductor and AI stocks are surging 100% or more within weeks.
Source: X
The dependence goes beyond stock prices. In Q1 2026, US GDP grew 2.0%. AI-driven technology investment contributed 134 basis points of that growth, accounting for 67% of all economic expansion in the quarter. Without AI investment, GDP growth was essentially flat.
The Jobs Contradiction
Here is where the story gets uncomfortable. The S&P 500 information technology sector now represents a record 0.87 ratio to the broader index, up 50% since the 2022 bear market low. At the same time, tech’s share of total US nonfarm payrolls has fallen to an all-time low of 0.02.
Source: X
The sector has shed 342,000 jobs since 2022, bringing total tech employment to 2.77 million, the lowest since February 2021. Information sector payrolls have now declined for 16 consecutive months, the longest streak since the 2008 financial crisis.
The market is pricing AI at record valuations while the industry is simultaneously cutting the humans who build it.
Related: Why Bitcoin Didn’t Correlate With the Rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
The Risk Nobody Wants to Talk About
The bull case is that AI is delivering genuine efficiency gains that justify high valuations without requiring headcount growth. That may be true. But it creates a market dangerously dependent on a single theme continuing to deliver.
If AI earnings growth slows, if the hype cycle turns, or if the handful of mega-caps driving everything hit a rough quarter, there is very little underneath to cushion the fall. The rest of the market at 16% growth over two years is not a foundation. It is a warning.
The gap between the market and the economy has rarely been this wide. Asset owners are experiencing historic wealth expansion. And the entire structure rests on five stocks continuing to go up.
Related: Strategy Says It May Sell Bitcoin to Fund Dividends
