A cybersecurity expert has warned that Bitcoin’s (BTC) underlying security could be compromised in the coming years by quantum computers, amid ongoing advancements in the sector.
According to David Carvalho, CEO and Chief Scientist at Naoris Protocol, Bitcoin is vulnerable due to its reliance on elliptic-curve cryptography. To this end, he projected that it could take just three to five years for quantum computers to crack this security, he said in an interview with Crypto News.
He explained that emerging quantum algorithms, especially Shor’s algorithm, will be able to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic protections in seconds once sufficiently powerful quantum computers are available.
Carvalho cautioned that about 30% of Bitcoin, or 6 to 7 million BTC, is stored in addresses that expose public keys, making them prime targets for quantum attacks.
“Blockchains are based on elliptic-curve signatures, which Shor’s algorithm will rip to shreds in seconds once you have a quantum computer. Every on-chain public key that is ever shown on the blockchain will forever be a target.<…> All together, this points to a window of three to five years — possibly even shorter — before quantum can regularly defeat today’s elliptic-curve or RSA-based cryptography,” he said.
Fast approaching Q-Day
The expert further warned that “Q-Day” is approaching, citing breakthroughs such as Microsoft’s Majorana chip and Google’s forecast for quantum machines capable of breaking RSA-2048 encryption in the near term.
With around 100 quantum systems already operational, and McKinsey projecting 5,000 by 2030, Carvalho urged investors to act now by transferring assets to quantum-safe wallets, updating software, and using quantum-secure custodians.
Indeed, concerns over Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum computing have accelerated in 2025 following multiple breakthroughs.
Among them is IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) plan to launch the first fault-tolerant quantum computer, Quantum Starling, by 2029, a major leap from today’s error-prone models.
However, experts remain divided on how Bitcoin will ultimately be affected once the technology is fully implemented.
For instance, Adam Back, an early Bitcoin adopter and CEO of Blockstream, has noted that quantum computers are unlikely to threaten Bitcoin for at least 20 years. However, he noted future breakthroughs might require users, possibly even Satoshi Nakamoto, to move funds to quantum-resistant addresses.
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