Benjamin Cowen, an analyst closely followed in the cryptocurrency world, assessed Bitcoin’s reaching the 200-day moving average level.
Cowen, citing Bitcoin’s historical cycles, signaled that the current market rally may not be permanent.
Cowen noted that Bitcoin is currently very close to its 200-day moving average, a level that has always acted as a very strong resistance point in past bear markets (2014, 2018, and 2022). According to the analyst, even if the price breaks above this level, it usually presents a “short-lived” upward move.
Cowen, comparing Bitcoin’s current price movements to past years, particularly highlighted the situation in 2018. Recalling that after a low point in February 2018, a higher low was reached in April, followed by a rally towards the 200-day moving average in May, the analyst stated that today’s price movements show a surprising similarity to that period.
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Despite the optimistic sentiment in the market, Cowen maintained a cautious stance, saying, “Unfortunately, I’m still wearing my bearish glasses,” and predicted that the price could show weakness again later in the year and a downward breakout could occur.
The analyst added that in 2014 and 2019, the price briefly rose above the 200-day moving average, but these increases ended without reaching a new peak. According to Cowen, uncertainty in the market may persist until macroeconomic factors and labor market data become clearer.
Cowen notes that the 200-day moving average is a “decision point” for Bitcoin investors. If history repeats itself, this level is likely to act as strong resistance, and the price is likely to test lower levels for the remainder of the year.
At the time of writing, the 200-day moving average for BTC was approximately $82,750.
*This is not investment advice.
