The crypto world is watching Bitcoin closely as it nears important cycle highs. The performance of altcoins could depend heavily on how Bitcoin and Ethereum move in the coming months.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has restated his prediction that Bitcoin may reach a cycle top in Q4 2025, with prices ranging from $130,000 to $155,000. His comments come as the market debates whether Bitcoin’s next major rally is already behind us or still has room to grow.
Bitcoin at a Crossroads
Cowen explained that Bitcoin is at a critical point. “We’ve gotten close to $130K already, with a recent peak around $126K,” he said. He outlined two possible scenarios:
- Pessimistic: Returns from the current cycle show Bitcoin may have already peaked. If this is correct, altcoins may see limited gains in the short term.
- Optimistic: Looking at Bitcoin’s cycle compared to 2017, there could still be one final push upward toward the end of Q4 2025.
Cowen stressed the importance of Bitcoin holding above its 50-week moving average, currently around $102K. Historically, if Bitcoin closes below this level for two weeks in a row, the cycle tends to be over.
Ethereum’s $5K Level: The Key for Altcoins
Cowen pointed to Ethereum’s $5,000 price level as a crucial benchmark for an altcoin rally. “Ethereum has to hold $5K for altcoins to follow,” he said.
Altcoin rallies usually happen after Ethereum hits a new all-time high, not before.
- If Ethereum hits $5K but quickly falls back, the broader altcoin market may remain weak.
- If Ethereum holds above $5K while Bitcoin rises, it could create the conditions for a strong alt season.
Liquidity and Market Flow
According to Cowen, money needs to rotate back into Bitcoin for the rally to continue. Investors must see Bitcoin as the core asset driving the market. A sustained Bitcoin rally could then lift Ethereum and altcoins.
Altcoins hit 0.29 pic.twitter.com/KVDNtnIFfr
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) October 15, 2025
He added, “If Bitcoin dominance rises with its price, altcoins are likely to follow. If Bitcoin drops, altcoins may fall even more sharply.”
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