Ethereum entered July 2026 near $1,615 after closing three straight quarters in losses for the first time in its trading history. The weak streak has placed $ETH under pressure as traders watch whether Q3 could stop the decline.
Coinglass quarterly data shows Ethereum ended Q4 2025 down 28.28%. It then fell 29.26% in Q1 2026 and 25.43% in Q2 2026. That marked three red quarters in a row. Ethereum had not recorded that pattern since its quarterly trading data began in 2016.
Ethereum July Odds Split After Historic Losing Streak
The weakness has now moved into Q3, which began on July 1. Historical data shows Q3 has been Ethereum’s least directional quarter. According to Coinglass data, Q3 has averaged a 7.05% gain. Its median return stands at 6.51%.
The Q3 would now decide whether Ethereum breaks the losing streak or extends it to four quarters. However, Polymarket odds show mixed expectations for Ethereum in July, with traders pricing in both recovery and further downside.
Ethereum has a 74% chance of hitting $1,700 in July. The $1,800 target carries a lower probability of 42%. However, the $1,600 target shows the highest displayed probability at 76%, suggesting traders still expect a possible move below current support zones.
The $1,500 level shows a 64% probability. Its displayed volume stands at $500, while the odds have increased by 14%, making it one of the more watched downside targets.
Lower levels show weaker odds. Ethereum has a 39% chance of hitting $1,400, while the $1,300 target shows a 20% probability.
Ethereum Sentiment May Shift Above $1,700
According to an X post by Crypto with Haris, Ethereum’s next major move could depend on whether $ETH reaches $1,200 or $2,000 first.
He said his timeline was filled with calls for $1,000 Ethereum. However, he said he does not expect that level for now. The analyst said Ethereum has already been one of the hardest-hit major coins in this cycle. He added that $ETH is building a strong base around the $1,500 to $1,600 zone.
The analyst said another BTC flush could still pressure $ETH. In that case, he viewed the realistic downside near $1,200 to $1,300. He said Ethereum is holding better than many expected.
The analyst also said sentiment could shift quickly if Ethereum reclaims $1,700. In his view, traders calling for $1,000 could soon begin discussing $2,000 again.
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